| 致洪暴雨中期预报进展 |
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| 引用本文： | 章淹.致洪暴雨中期预报进展[J].水科学进展,1995,6(2):162-168. |
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| 作者姓名： | 章淹 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京气象学院 北京100081 |
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| 摘 要： | 结合我国国情,从防洪减灾的迫切需要出发,进行增长暴雨预见期的研究。采用气象与水文结合的方法,提出“致洪暴雨”的新概念,并简要地论述了近年来国内在致洪暴雨中期预报研究试验方面的若干新进展,其内容包括致洪暴雨过程出现的天气气候特征,大气环流形势背景、卫星云图及OLR场分布特点、大气超长波、长波及合成行星波、低频振荡、大气物理参数诊断、暴雨时空分布特点及其与洪水的关系,以及中期预报方法的探索等。
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| 关 键 词： | 致洪暴雨 中期预报 天气演变过程 |
| 收稿时间： | 1995-01-06 |
Advances on Extended Forecast of Flood-Causing Torrential Rains in China |
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| Zhang Yan.Advances on Extended Forecast of Flood-Causing Torrential Rains in China[J].Advances in Water Science,1995,6(2):162-168. |
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| Authors: | Zhang Yan |
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| Affiliation: | Beijing institute of Meteorology, Hydrometeorological Committee of CMS & CHES |
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| Abstract: | In view of the features of torrential rains,an extended forecast of them is of urgent necessity for the flood-protection and construction of the Main Dam on the Three Gorges of the Yangtze River. Hence,studies are concentrated first on the heavy rains that may cause flash-floods,in which a new concept and its mathe-matical expression of "Flood-Causing Torrential Rain" (FCTR)is proposed. Through a series of combination of meteorological and hydrological studies including:climatological and atmospheric synoptic patterns of FCTR,satellite cloud systerns and OLR features,extra-long and long wave fluctuations,low frequencies of atmospheric oscillations,medium-range atmo-physical parameter diagnoses,and relationships between intense rainfall process and flash-flooding,etc,some extended FCTR forecast methods have been established and used experimentally. |
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| Keywords: | Flood-Causing Torrential Rain (FCTR) extended forecast weather process |
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