| 水利工程风险分析研究现状综述 |
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| 引用本文： | 李爱花,刘恒,耿雷华,钟华平,姜蓓蕾.水利工程风险分析研究现状综述[J].水科学进展,2009,20(3):453-459. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李爱花 刘恒 耿雷华 钟华平 姜蓓蕾 |
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| 作者单位： | 南京水利科学研究院水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室, 江苏, 南京, 210029 |
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| 摘 要： | 将水利工程风险分析分为单一和综合两种情况进行归纳分析。总结了风险分析在水利工程中应用的各种分析方法,并就各种方法在研究应用中的适用条件、相关关系和优缺点进行评述。指出单一风险在水利工程中的应用主要以数理统计方法为主,分析水利工程的随机不确定性。综合风险能够考虑水利工程的随机、模糊和灰色等不确定性,但存在着相关性、一致性、行为因素影响分析等技术难点。给出了正确选择评价方法、结合失事后果进行分析等一些建议。
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| 关 键 词： | 风险分析 水利工程 综述 |
| 收稿时间： | 2008-04-06 |
Review of risk analysis of hydraulic engineering system |
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| LI Ai-hua,LIU Heng,GENG Lei-hua,ZHONG Hua-ping,JIANG Bei-lei.Review of risk analysis of hydraulic engineering system[J].Advances in Water Science,2009,20(3):453-459. |
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| Authors: | LI Ai-hua LIU Heng GENG Lei-hua ZHONG Hua-ping JIANG Bei-lei |
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| Affiliation: | State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210029, China |
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| Abstract: | The risk analysis in hydraulic engineering system is classified into the single risk assessment and the comprehensive risk assessment in this paper. Various risk analysis methods,developed and applied in hydraulic engineering system,are summarized including the applicable conditions,advantages and disadvantages of each method and their interrelationship. The main methods for the single risk assessment are the mathematical statistics methods,concerning the stochastic uncertainties of the hydraulic system. The comprehensive ones,on the one hand,can take into account the stochastic,fuzzy and grey uncertainties;on the other hand,there still exist some problems,such as the correlation,consistence and impact analysis of behavior factors. Based on the review,some suggestions are putforward,such as choosing appropriate assessment method and integrating the probability with the consequences in risk analysis. |
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