| 太阳活动对京津冀地区旱涝的影响 |
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| 引用本文： | 池俊成,顾光琴.太阳活动对京津冀地区旱涝的影响[J].高原气象,2009,28(5):1175-1180. |
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| 作者姓名： | 池俊成 顾光琴 |
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| 作者单位： | 河北省气候中心,河北,石家庄,050021 |
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| 基金项目： | 北京区域气象中心科技创新基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用中国气象科学院等整理的中国近五百年旱涝等级资料， 应用小波分析、 相关矩分析等方法， 详细分析了太阳黑子变化与京津冀地区旱涝的关系。在统计太阳黑子极值年附近旱涝特征时发现， 在太阳黑子峰值年附近京津冀地区容易出现偏旱的年份， 低谷年附近容易出现偏涝的年份。小波分析结果表明, 太阳黑子与旱涝指数在9.8年、 78.6年、 132.2年周期处存在对应关系， 说明太阳黑子的变化对京津冀地区的旱涝有一定影响。通过旱涝指数与太阳黑子相对数的相关矩分析， 发现两者相关关系存在阶段性的转折变化， 即由正相关转为负相关， 或者由负相关转为正相关， 相关矩发生转折的时间间隔最长为81年， 最短为23年， 平均为50年。本文还对相关矩阶段性变化的可能原因进行了初步分析。
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| 关 键 词： | 京津冀地区旱涝 太阳黑子 小波分析 相关矩分析 |
The Influence of Solar Activity on Drought and Flood in Jingjinji Area |
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| CHI Jun-Cheng,GU Guang-qin.The Influence of Solar Activity on Drought and Flood in Jingjinji Area[J].Plateau Meteorology,2009,28(5):1175-1180. |
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| Authors: | CHI Jun-Cheng GU Guang-qin |
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| Abstract: | The relationships between drought index in the Jingjinji areas and relative sunspot number are analyzed by using the dryness and wetness grades series in last 500 years of China. There was prone to drought during the peaks solar activity and prone to flood during the troughs solar activity in the Jingjinji area. The wavelet analysis indicated that the relative sunspot number and drought index have quasi-period of 9.8 a, 78.6 a, 132.2 a, explained that the drought and flood in the jingjinji area and the sunspot activity has certain relations. The correlation moment analysis shows that correlation moment between drought index and relative sunspot number have staggered changes. The correlation coefficients are positive in 1479-1790 and 1856-1878, negative in 1791-1855 and 1960-2000. It is not significantly correlated in 1856-1878. The possible reasons for staggered changes of correlation coefficient were also analyzed in this paper. |
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| Keywords: | Drought index in Jingjinji area Relative sunspot number Wavelet analysis Correlation moment analysis |
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