| 区间概率函数在晋城市降水概率预报中的应用研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘强军,宋军芳.区间概率函数在晋城市降水概率预报中的应用研究[J].山西气象,2003(2):7-9. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘强军 宋军芳 |
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| 作者单位： | 山西省晋城市气象局 山西晋城048000
(刘强军)，山西省晋城市气象局 山西晋城048000(宋军芳) |
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| 摘 要： | 本文主要应用区间概率函数转换预报因子，经过相关比筛选。进行因子回归，构建分量级降水概率预报方程，同时应用T213L31数值预报产品统计释用方法，结合最优子集回归构造分时刻预报方程，最后进行概率预报。我们根据晋城气候区划，设计平川和山区两种降水概率预报方程。为晋城市开展降水概率预报提供了基础。
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| 关 键 词： | 区间概率函数 最优子集回归 降水概率预报 |
| 文章编号： | 1004-5732(2003)02-0007-03 |
| 修稿时间： | 2002年12月28 |
Application Research of Interval Probability Function in Precipitation Probability Forecast of Jincheng |
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| Liu Qiangjun,Song Junfang.Application Research of Interval Probability Function in Precipitation Probability Forecast of Jincheng[J].Shanxi Meteorological Quarterly,2003(2):7-9. |
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| Authors: | Liu Qiangjun Song Junfang |
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| Abstract: | This article mainly applied interval probability function to transform predictor,maderegress of factors which filtered with corelation ratio,constructed the forecast equation of precipitation probability for grades.At the same time,it constructed forecast equations for timeby using the method of releasing the T213L31 numerical forecast product combined with the most superior subset regress,finally it made the probability forecast.Two kinds of precipitation probability forecast equations to plain and mountain area have been designed according to the climatic region layout of Jincheng and the foundation work have been made for developing the precipitation probability forecast in Jincheng. |
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| Keywords: | interval probability function most Superior subset regress precipitation probability forecast |
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