| BCC_CSM1.0模式对20世纪降水及其变率的模拟 |
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| 引用本文： | 董敏,吴统文,王在志,辛晓歌,张芳.BCC_CSM1.0模式对20世纪降水及其变率的模拟[J].应用气象学报,2013,24(1):1-11. |
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| 作者姓名： | 董敏 吴统文 王在志 辛晓歌 张芳 |
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| 作者单位： | 国家气候中心，北京 100081 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家科技支撑项目(2007BAC29B00)，公益性行业（气象）科研专项（GYHY200806006） |
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| 摘 要： | 应用国家气候中心气候系统模式 (BCC_CSM1.0)，在给定温室气体、太阳常数、硫酸盐气溶胶、火山灰等外强迫数据的条件下，对19世纪末到20世纪气候进行模拟。对降水模拟结果的检验表明:BCC_CSM1.0模式能够模拟出全球降水的基本气候状态、季节变化、季节内振荡、年际变化等特征。模拟结果显示:与CMAP及CRU观测分析资料相比基本一致，全球陆地降水在过去一个多世纪中存在上升趋势。同时，模式也存在不足和需要改进之处:模拟降水的时空分布与观测不一致；我国东部地区的雨带季节转变较观测偏快；主要雨带位置较观测偏西、偏北；夏季青藏高原东北侧有虚假的降水中心；热带季节内振荡较实际偏弱；降水年际变率较观测略大，主要发生在降水较明显的热带。BCC_CSM1.0模式模拟的全球陆地降水以及欧亚、亚洲、中国大陆 (中国东部、江南、华北等地区) 平均降水与近105年由观测所得的CRU资料基本一致，但多数地区比观测略偏低。模拟的全球陆地、中国东部、江南、华北等地区的降水趋势也与CRU资料一致；模拟的全球陆地降水在过去105年中有明显的上升趋势，与CRU资料相比，上升趋势更强，但在欧亚、亚洲、中国范围内模拟的降水趋势与观测有一定的差异。
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| 关 键 词： | 国家气候中心 气候模式 降水及其变率 |
| 收稿时间： | 2012-04-17 |
Simulation of the Precipitation and Its Variation During the 20th Century Using the BCC Climate Model (BCC_CSM1.0) |
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| Dong Min,Wu Tongwen,Wang Zaizhi,Xin Xiaoge and Zhang Fang.Simulation of the Precipitation and Its Variation During the 20th Century Using the BCC Climate Model (BCC_CSM1.0)[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,2013,24(1):1-11. |
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| Authors: | Dong Min Wu Tongwen Wang Zaizhi Xin Xiaoge and Zhang Fang |
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| Affiliation: | National Climate Center, Beijing 100081 |
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| Abstract: | The precipitation of the late 19th and 20th century (1870—2005) is simulated using Beijing Climate Center's Climate System Model (BCC_CSM1.0) under specified external forcing of solar constant, greenhouse gases, sulfate aerosols and volcanic ashes. The simulated precipitation and its variations are validated, showing that the BCC_CSM1.0 can pretty well simulate the basic climate state of global precipitation, the seasonal transition, the intra-seasonal oscillation of tropical precipitation and the inter-annual variation. The simulation shows there is an increasing trend in global land precipitation and in the extreme precipitation events during 1901—2005. The result consists with the CMAP and CRU analysis data which is based on observations in general, but there are still some discrepancies between the simulated and observed precipitation in the spatial distribution and temporal evolution. The simulation ability of the model needs improvement in some aspects. The simulated seasonal transition of the main rain belt in east part of China is faster than the observation. And the simulated precipitation over northeast part of Tibet Plateau and nearby region is heavier than observation especially in summer. The simulated intra-seasonal oscillation of the tropical precipitation is weaker than the observation. The simulated inter-annual variability is larger than the observation, which mainly occurs in the tropical region where the precipitation is large. The mean precipitation of global land, Eurasia, Asia, east part of China, the south part of the Yangtze River and North China during 1901—2005 from BCC_CSM1.0 is consistent with corresponding CRU data. In most of the above regions the simulated precipitation is lower than the observation. The simulated precipitation trend of global land, east part of China, the south part of the Yangtze and North China from BCC_CSM1.0 is consistent with that from CRU data. The simulated precipitation of global land for 1901—2005 has obvious increasing trend which is more significant than that from CRU data. But for the other regions mentioned, the precipitation trend simulation result is unsatisfactory and needs further improvement. |
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| Keywords: | National Climate Center climate model precipitation and its variability |
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