| 我国雷击致人伤亡特征及易损度评估区划 |
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| 引用本文： | 高燚,张义军,张文娟,张阳.我国雷击致人伤亡特征及易损度评估区划[J].应用气象学报,2012,23(3):294-303. |
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| 作者姓名： | 高燚 张义军 张文娟 张阳 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.海南省防雷中心，海口 570203 |
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| 基金项目： | 海南省重点科技计划项目(ZDXM20120057),中国气象科学研究院基本科研业务专项(2009Y008)，海南省气象局科技创新团队项目（HN2010TDA17） |
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| 摘 要： | 利用1997—2010年全国雷电灾害数据库资料和TRMM卫星的闪电观测资料，分析了我国雷击致人伤亡的年变化特征，结果表明:雷击造成我国平均每年460人死亡，425人受伤，死伤比为1:0.92，每年每百万人口平均死亡人数为0.36人，每年每万平方公里平均死亡人数为0.48人。为了揭示不同区域雷击致人伤亡的易损度，采用R型聚类分析方法对影响易损度的8个指标进行筛选，应用Q型聚类中类平均联结法进行分析计算，给出我国雷击致人伤亡的6类风险区划，发现广东和海南划为易损度极高的第1类地区，该类地区雷击致人伤亡的综合易损值高达5.017，而划为第5类、第6类的我国西北和东北地区雷击致人伤亡的易损度较弱，属弱风险区域。采用离差平方和法对聚类的结果进行解释和验证表明:聚类解稳定可信，较好地反映了雷击致人伤亡这种随机事件的区域易损度特征。
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| 关 键 词： | 雷击 人员伤亡 易损度 区划 |
| 收稿时间： | 9/8/2011 12:00:00 AM |
Characteristics of Lightning Casualties and Vulnerability Evaluation Regionalization in China |
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| Gao Yi,Zhang Yijun,Zhang Wenjuan and Zhang Yang.Characteristics of Lightning Casualties and Vulnerability Evaluation Regionalization in China[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,2012,23(3):294-303. |
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| Authors: | Gao Yi Zhang Yijun Zhang Wenjuan and Zhang Yang |
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| Affiliation: | 1.Hainan Lightning Protection Center, Haikou 5702032.Laboratory of Lightning Physics and Protection, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081 |
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| Abstract: | According to the data of lightning disasters from 1997 to 2010 and lightning observation by TRMM satellite, feature of national injuries and deaths from lightning is analyzed and the results indicate that lightning causes 460 deaths and 425 injuries every year on average. The mortality rate is 0.36 per million people and 0.48 per ten thousand square kilometers every year. Three indexes about lightning casualties reports, the number of lightning fatalities per ten thousand square kilometers and the number of lightning fatalities per million people have good correlation. Lightning-related casualties have increased for the period of 1997—2007 and then begin to decrease since 2008. Casualties anomaly percent is positive in the year of 2002, 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2007, with the maximum value in 2007, when the ratio is 78% more than normal years.In order to reveal the vulnerability of lightning which lead to injuries and deaths in different region, R-cluster analysis is used for sifting the 8 indexes affected by vulnerability evaluation. Lightning density, casualties frequency, population, and region areas are selected as variables. Comparability measures of each sample are calculated by using Euclidean distance, and then the method of Q-cluster is used to analyze and calculate these date. Finally the results of 6 different kinds of risk zones of lightning that lead to injuries and deaths in China are given. Guangdong and Hainan pertain to vulnerability evaluation extreme high areas. In these areas, the comprehensive vulnerability evaluation of cluster reaches up to 5.017, where both the average density of lightning and personnel casualty rate is the highest in the six categories. In the opposite, the northwest and northeast of China are areas with the lowest vulnerability. Finally, Ward’s method of Q-cluster is adopted to explain and testify the result of cluster, showing the cluster solution is not only stable but also reliable. The result of the classification is appropriate, and preferably reflects regional vulnerability characteristics of lightning-caused casualties. |
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