| 热带气旋研究和业务预报技术的发展 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈联寿.热带气旋研究和业务预报技术的发展[J].应用气象学报,2006,17(6):672-681. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈联寿 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国气象科学研究院, 北京 100081 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划);国家自然科学基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 过去半个世纪, 我国对热带气旋作了深入和系统的研究。研究内容涉及热带气旋的运动机理和路径预报方法、发生发展及结构和强度变化、登陆和变性过程、登陆后的衰减和维持机制及其引起的暴雨分布等。在此院庆之际, 该文主要对中国气象科学研究院在热带气旋领域的研究作一回顾, 与此发生关联的国内其他单位的工作也可能提及, 但决非全面总结。采用的研究方法包括数理统计、天气动力机理分析、数值模式发展和模拟研究、物理诊断分析及外场科学试验等, 这些研究方法和取得的成果在不同时期对推动国内热带气旋研究起了积极的作用。上述研究工作的另一个特点是与实际紧密结合, 研究成果在实际台风预报业务中应用并不断改进, 研究成果不断转化为业务能力, 对改进预报技术、提高业务预报能力作出了重要贡献。
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| 关 键 词： | 热带气旋 研究和预报 外场试验 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006-11-30 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006年11月30 |
The Evolution on Research and Operational Forecasting Techniques of Tropical Cyclones |
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| Chen Lianshou.The Evolution on Research and Operational Forecasting Techniques of Tropical Cyclones[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,2006,17(6):672-681. |
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| Authors: | Chen Lianshou |
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| Affiliation: | Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081 |
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| Abstract: | Heavy rainfall,storm surges and strong winds brought about by tropical cyclones are an acute natural disaster which will result in severe damages of loss of lives and properties.Accurate forecasts and warnings on tropical cyclone activities are one of the major responsibilities for tropical cyclone forecasters and researchers.Tropical cyclone has been studied systematically in China in this half century including various topics of tropical cyclone motion and its forecasting techniques,formation and extratropical transition,structure and intensity change,tropical cyclone landfalling and abrupt change in this stage,sustaining and decaying over land,rain/wind distribution etc.The research achievements from Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences(CAMS) in this half century are reviewed for her 50-year anniversary.Other research works related to CAMS could be raised but it is not a comprehensive summary at all.The research methodology and technical strategy with CAMS are advanced in different era.Mathematical-physical statistics,mechanism analysis with synoptic-dynamical theory,numerical simulation,physical diagnostics and field experiment programs etc.are employed in the research programs and play an critical role to advance the tropical cyclone researches in the nation.Another characteristic of the research in CAMS is to integrate the theory with practice,to integrate the research with operational needs,to transfer the research achievements to operational forecast.One of the scientific objectives for CAMS is to raise the operational capacity of tropical cyclone forecasting.Several decades ago,scientists treated tropical cyclone as a particle without volume because people don't know much about the detail structure of it due to lack of data in the vicinity of storms.Motion forecast depends on the environmental steering derived from one layer barotropic model.Now motion forecast can be done by the high resolution global spectral model with data assimilation and bogussing tropical cyclone in CAMS.This technical variation cost 50 years or so.This also reflects the progress and advances of remotely sensed techniques and computer capacity in this time span.A serial field programs carried out by CAMS in the past 2 decades are helpful for the research programs on the sudden change in motion,intensity and rainfall of coastal typhoons and landfalling tropical cyclone studies.Relevant research achievements would be transferred to operational communities.Scientific cooperation and coordination especially the international cooperation are needed for the tropical cyclone research in CAMS.The technical cooperation between CAMS and operational centers are more important and beneficial for both sides.Some of the achievements are the common results of the cooperation,which should be explored and developed in the future research programs. |
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| Keywords: | tropical cyclone research and forecast field experiments |
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