| 山东省飞机增雨降水区分级预报方法研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 龚佃利,王以琳,谢考宪.山东省飞机增雨降水区分级预报方法研究[J].应用气象学报,2001,12(Z1):139-145. |
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| 作者姓名： | 龚佃利 王以琳 谢考宪 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 山东省人民政府人工降雨办公室,
2. 山东省气象局, |
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| 基金项目： | 本文由国家科技攻关（96-020-01-05）课题和山东省科技计划项目共同资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用1997～2000年春秋季山东主要降水天气系统中尺度客观分析和降水模拟资料，统计分析了与降水密切相关的15个因子，并对因子的稳定性进行检验。用全部入选因子的前5个主成分作为新的预报因子，建立全省25个区域0～6h和0～12h平均降水量的3类判别方程，判别效果较好。以此方法为基础建立的决策系统为增雨作业指挥提供了实用性技术工具。
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| 关 键 词： | 人工增雨 主成分分析 逐步判别 甚短期预报 |
| 修稿时间： | 2000年10月20 |
A STUDY OF DISCRIMINATION METHOD FOR ARTIFICAL
PRECIPITATION AREAS IN SHANDONG PROVINCE |
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| Gong Dianli,Wang Yilin,Xie Kaoxian.A STUDY OF DISCRIMINATION METHOD FOR ARTIFICAL
PRECIPITATION AREAS IN SHANDONG PROVINCE[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,2001,12(Z1):139-145. |
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| Authors: | Gong Dianli Wang Yilin Xie Kaoxian |
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| Abstract: | Using the mesoscale objective analysis and numerical simulation data of precipitation weather systems in spring and autumn season in Shandong Province from 1997 to 2000, 15 correlative rainfall predictors are analyzed, and the stability of the predictors is tested. Using the first 5 principal components of all the selected predictors as new predictors,3 group discrimination equations of 0 to 6 hour and 0 to 12 hour mean precipitation in 25 areas are built. The test result is satisfactory. It can serve as a valuable tool for choosing seeding locations for precipitation enhancement. |
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| Keywords: | Precipitation enhancement Principal component analysis Step discriminate Very short range forecasting |
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