| 北欧数值预报系统HIRLAM在中国的应用——长江流域暴雨的预报试验 |
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| 引用本文： | 俞小鼎,黄向宇.北欧数值预报系统HIRLAM在中国的应用——长江流域暴雨的预报试验[J].应用气象学报,1997,8(4):498-502. |
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| 作者姓名： | 俞小鼎 黄向宇 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.北京气象学院，丹麦气象局，丹麦哥本哈根大学 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家教委留学归国人员科研启动基金,丹麦外交部DNAIDA基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 将北欧有限区域模式HIRLAM应用于中国地区，以检验该模式在定量预报夏季长江流域暴雨方面的能力。3次长江流域暴雨个例的预报试验表明；0～24 h的累积雨量预报是比较成功的，能够报出长江流域大部分日降水50 mm以上的暴雨区；24～48 h累积雨量预报的质量各个例有较大差异，总体上比0～24 h预报质量有相当大的下降，尤其是在50 mm以上暴雨区的预报方面能力较差。
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| 关 键 词： | 高分辨率 有限区域模式 长江流域 暴雨 预报 |
Application of the Hirlam System in China — Torrential Rain Forecasting Experiments in Yangtze River Valley |
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| Yu Xiaoding.Application of the Hirlam System in China — Torrential Rain Forecasting Experiments in Yangtze River Valley[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,1997,8(4):498-502. |
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| Authors: | Yu Xiaoding |
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| Affiliation: | 1.1) (Beijing Institute of Meteorology, Beijing 100081); 2) (Danish Meteorological Institute); 3) (University of Copenhagen) |
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| Abstract: | The HIRLAM system was used in China to test its ability in forecasting the summer torrential rain in Yangtze River valley. The experiments of three selected torrential rain cases show 0 ~ 24 h accumulated rainfall forecasts are quite successful, being able to reproduce most of the observed torrential rain areas (daily rainfall≥50 mm) in the Yangtze River valley. The 24 ~ 48 h accumulated rainfall forecasts vary with different cases. Some cases are successful, some are failure. On the whole 24 ~ 48 h rainfall forecasts are worse than 0 ~ 24 h forecasts, especially for the forecast of daily rainfall≥50 mm. |
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| Keywords: | HIRLAM Yangtze River valley Torrential rain forecast |
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