| 江淮流域持续性极端降水及预报方法研究进展 |
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| 引用本文： | 翟盘茂,李蕾,周佰铨,陈阳.江淮流域持续性极端降水及预报方法研究进展[J].应用气象学报,2016,27(5):631-640. |
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| 作者姓名： | 翟盘茂 李蕾 周佰铨 陈阳 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国气象科学研究院, 北京 100081 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点基础研究发展计划（2012CB417205），中国气象科学研究院基本科研业务费项目(2015Z001) |
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| 摘 要： | 持续性极端降水过程会引发严重的洪涝灾害，是我国主要的灾害性天气之一，其形成机理和预报理论与方法研究受到广泛关注。近年来，针对持续性极端降水的形成机理和预报方法研究取得了一系列进展，主要包括:开展了我国区域性持续性极端降水事件的自动识别方法研究，研制建立了江淮流域持续性极端降水的大尺度环流概念模型，并提取了1~2周的前兆信号；从东亚—太平洋遥相关型 (EAP) 角度探究其对持续性极端降水的影响机理，并探讨利用EAP对江淮流域持续性极端降水进行预报的可行性。此外，在上述研究的基础上发展了基于关键影响系统的持续性极端降水的物理统计预报方法。
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| 关 键 词： | 江淮流域持续性极端降水 东亚—太平洋遥相关型 前期信号 物理统计预报 |
| 收稿时间： | 2016-06-12 |
| 修稿时间： | 8/4/2016 12:00:00 AM |
Progress on Mechanism and Prediction Methods for Persistent Extreme Precipitation in the Yangtze Huai River Valley |
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| Zhai Panmao,Li Lei,Zhou Baiquan and Chen Yang.Progress on Mechanism and Prediction Methods for Persistent Extreme Precipitation in the Yangtze Huai River Valley[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,2016,27(5):631-640. |
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| Authors: | Zhai Panmao Li Lei Zhou Baiquan and Chen Yang |
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| Affiliation: | Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081 |
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| Abstract: | Persistent extreme precipitation (PEP) results in severe floods in China, especially in the Yangtze-Huai River Valley (YHRV), making it one of the main weather disasters in China. There exists an urgent need to enhance understandings on the formation mechanism and developing rules of PEP and extend forecast valid time of the PEP for the scientific decision of government.In recent years, progress has been achieved from related studies on the formation mechanism and forecast method of PEP in the YHRV which has caught wide attention. The method of automatically identifying regional PEP events is established which is named as RePEEI (Regional Persistent Extreme Event Identifier). Conceptual model is established on the large-scale circulation patterns responsible for PEP events, revealing that concurrent anomalies of the key influential systems are important causes for the occurrence and maintenance of PEP, and precursor signals (about 1-2 weeks prior to the onset of PEP) are investigated. Taking East Asia/Pacific teleconnection pattern (EAP) as a point of penetration, the mechanism of its effects on PEP is explored. Moreover, it indicates that whether the PEP will occur in YHRV is decided by the north-south location of high systems at low latitudes. Schematics for precursor circulation features of typical EAP patterns responsible for persistent extreme precipitation events in the YHRV is established. And corresponding precursor signals are also obtained, the feasibility of predicting PEP on the use of EAP is discussed. Furthermore, based on the key influential systems and precursor signals found above in characteristic large-scale circulation patterns, the physical statistical forecast model for the prediction of PEP is established, which is named as KISAM (Key Influential Systems based Analog Model), with the idea of parameter optimization method and ensemble mean introduced, using different predictors and cosine angular analog method with weight assigned.However, the forecast of PEP is still a challenge, especially when the forecast lead time extends to medium range or even extended range. The performance of numerical models in predicting the occurrence and location of PEP still leaves much to be solved. How to further improve direct outputs of numerical models and combine model outputs with physical statistical methods to improve the forecast of PEP is a research area that needs much more study. |
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| Keywords: | persistent extreme precipitation in the Yangtze Huai River Valley the East Asia/Pacific teleconnection pattern precursor signals physical statistical forecast |
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