| 一种新的城市SO2污染统计预报方法及其应用 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 杨文峰,史宝忠.一种新的城市SO2污染统计预报方法及其应用[J].应用气象学报,2003,14(2):223-229. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 杨文峰 史宝忠 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 1.陕西省气象局, 西安 710014 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 针对目前采用的统计方法存在的不足, 即在选择预报因子时没有考虑预报因子之间的相关性, 挑选的预报因子由于非正交, 使回归计算的结果不稳定, 给计算带来一定的误差。该文提出把一元线性回归分析、自然正交函数 (EOF) 和逐步回归方法结合起来, 从而得到一种新的建立统计预报模型的方法。以西安市采暖期和夏季SO2日均浓度为预报对象, 使用该方法建立预报模型。拟合及预报试验表明, 这些预报模型不但可以很好地拟合变化趋势, 而且还能作出较准确的预报, 采暖期预报的级别命中率为72.5 %, 夏季级别预报命中率为100%。通过对比试验, 此方法优于目前常用的逐步回归方法, 具有很好的应用前景。
|
| 关 键 词： | 城市空气污染 污染预报模型 级别命中率 SO2 |
| 收稿时间： | 2001-10-24 |
| 修稿时间： | 2001年10月24 |
A New Statistic Forecasting Method of SO2 Pollution and Its Application |
| |
| Yang Wenfeng.A New Statistic Forecasting Method of SO2 Pollution and Its Application[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,2003,14(2):223-229. |
| |
| Authors: | Yang Wenfeng |
| |
| Affiliation: | 1.Meteorological Institute of S haanxi Province, Xi'an 7100152.Department of City Apparatus and Environmental Engineering, Xi'an Architecture and Technology University, Xi'an 710055 |
| |
| Abstract: | Concerning the limits of the currently used statistic methods of air pollution (not considering correlation and non orthogonality among forecasting factors results in regression instability and more errors), the linear regression and empirical orthogonal function (EOF) are combined with the stepwise regression analysis method,and thus a new forecasting method in the building forecasting model is proposed. By using this method for forecasting SO 2 density in the heating period, the model fitting and forecasting show that these models can not only fit the changing tendency of SO 2 density,but also forecast SO 2 density quite well,e. g., the grade accuracy is 72.5 percent. In contrast with the stepwise regression analysis method, during the forecast experiment,the result of the new forecasting method is more accurate. The new forecasting method has good prospect in application. |
| |
| Keywords: | Urban air pollution Pollution forecasting model Statistic forecast Grade accuracy SO 2 |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《应用气象学报》浏览原始摘要信息 |
|
点击此处可从《应用气象学报》下载全文 |
|
