| 台风路径实时数值预报的初步试验 |
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| 引用本文： | 王诗文,李健军.台风路径实时数值预报的初步试验[J].应用气象学报,1994,5(4):462-469. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王诗文 李健军 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.国家气象中心 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家科委85─906项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 根据国家气象中心建立的台风路径数值预报试验系统，引入了模型台风。模型台风是利用获得的场面参数构成的，然后再叠加到客观分析场上作为台风路径预报的初始场。引入模型台风后，无论是台风中心位置还是其流场、质量场与实际观测比较接近，且预报效果有一定提高。利用模型台风对1992年Eli（9205号）和Janis（9210号）台风进行了实时的预报试验。结果表明对这二个台风的移动趋势基本上能预报出来，预报的台风路径与实况进行了对比，并与气候持续预报作了比较，效果较好。
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| 关 键 词： | 模型台风 试验 台风路径预报 |
Experiments of Real Time Numerical Weather Prediction of Typhoon Tracks |
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| Wang Shiwen,Li Jianjun.Experiments of Real Time Numerical Weather Prediction of Typhoon Tracks[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,1994,5(4):462-469. |
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| Authors: | Wang Shiwen Li Jianjun |
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| Affiliation: | 1.(National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081) |
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| Abstract: | An experimental numerical weather prediction system of typhoon tracks has been developed by National Meteorological Center. And a modified version of the typhoon bogus developed at Japan Meteorological Agency has been installed in this experimental system. The bogus vortex, whose construction is based on the observed parameter values and empirical formula, is superposed on the original analysis as initial conditions for prediction of typhoon tracks. The initial fields can be improved by merging with the bogus vortex which resembles to the corresponding real storm in both location and structure. By using this experimental system and the bogus method, realtime forecasts are made for typhoon T9205 (ELI) and T9210 (JANIS), and results indicate considerable skill in forecasting typhoon motion. |
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| Keywords: | Bogus vortex Experiment Prediction of typhoon tracks |
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