| 时间滞后与奇异向量初值生成方法的比较试验 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 杨学胜,冷亭波,等.时间滞后与奇异向量初值生成方法的比较试验[J].应用气象学报,2002,13(1):62-66. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 杨学胜 冷亭波 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 1.国家气象中心, 北京 100081 |
| |
| 基金项目： | “8 6 3”项目“扰动初值形成方案的优化改进”ZD 1 1 0 3 0 2 0 2专题的资助 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 简单介绍了国家气象中心基于奇异向量初值生成方法的神威集合预报准业务系统, 它主要包括资料的前处理、客观分析、预报模式、初值扰动的生成、后处理、产品制作和系统监控七个部分, 共有 32 个成员。 提出了 12 个成员的时间滞后法集合预报系统的实施方案, 并与奇异向量法进行了对比试验。 结果表明, 不论是距平相关系数还是均方根误差, 奇异向量法在绝大多数区域和预报时效都比时间滞后法好。
|
| 关 键 词： | 奇异向量 时间滞后 集合预报 初值扰动 |
| 收稿时间： | 2001-04-28 |
| 修稿时间： | 2001年4月28日 |
The Comparison Experiments of SV and LAF Initial Perturbation Techniques Used at the NMC Ensemble Prediction System |
| |
| Yang Xuesheng\ Chen Dehui.The Comparison Experiments of SV and LAF Initial Perturbation Techniques Used at the NMC Ensemble Prediction System[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,2002,13(1):62-66. |
| |
| Authors: | Yang Xuesheng\ Chen Dehui |
| |
| Affiliation: | 1.National Meteorological Center, Beijing 1000812.North Computation Center, Beijing 100091 |
| |
| Abstract: | The Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) at NMC is briefly described. It mainly includes such seven parts as the data pre-processing, optimal interpolation analysis, the forecasting model (T106L19), the computation of initial perturbations based on singular vectors, post-processing, the generation of ensemble products and the system monitoring. The configuration of EPS compromises one control forecast started from the unperturbed analysis and 31 perturbed forecasts started from the perturbed analysis. Then the lagged average forecasting (LAF) scheme with 12 members is proposed and implemented at the SW-1 computer. The comparison experiments are conducted by using different initial perturbation techniques. One is SV (singular vectors), the other is LAF. The results show that the performance of SV is better than that of LAF in most of the verified regions and lead times, both for the anomaly correlation coefficients and the root mean square errors. |
| |
| Keywords: | Singular vector\ Lagged average forecasting\ Ensemble prediction system Initial perturbation |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《应用气象学报》浏览原始摘要信息 |
|
点击此处可从《应用气象学报》下载全文 |
|
