| 长江中下游地区洪涝灾害风险性评估 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 卞洁,李双林,何金海.长江中下游地区洪涝灾害风险性评估[J].应用气象学报,2011,22(5):604-611. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 卞洁 李双林 何金海 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 1.中国科学院大气物理研究所竺可桢-南森国际研究中心，北京 100029 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目“重大气象灾害综合风险评估研究”(KZCX2YWQ0308) |
| |
| 摘 要： | 基于长江中下游地区2000—2008年湖北、湖南、江西、安徽、江苏、浙江6个省的洪涝灾情资料 (由于上海市洪涝灾情较轻未列入分析范围)，运用灰色关联度法对该区域各省每年洪涝受灾情况进行量化，建立洪涝综合灾情指数。基于该指数，采用信息扩散理论评估模型对该区的洪涝灾害进行风险性评估，结果表明:各省洪涝灾害风险差异明显；该地区洪涝中灾频发，几乎1~2年就会遭遇其危害，安徽、湖北以及湖南发生大灾的可能性最大；江苏、浙江次之；江西遭遇大灾的概率相对较小。这一评估结果与近9年实际洪涝灾情统计资料相吻合，说明所用评估模型在处理不完备信息方面确有优势，可以推广应用。
|
| 关 键 词： | 长江中下游地区 灰色关联度 洪涝综合灾情指数 信息扩散 风险性评估 |
| 收稿时间： | 2010-11-29 |
Risk Assessment of Flood Disaster in the Mid lower Reaches of the Yangtze |
| |
| Bian Jie,Li Shuang Lin and He jin hai.Risk Assessment of Flood Disaster in the Mid lower Reaches of the Yangtze[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,2011,22(5):604-611. |
| |
| Authors: | Bian Jie Li Shuang Lin and He jin hai |
| |
| Affiliation: | 1.Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 1000292.College of Atmospheric Science, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044 |
| |
| Abstract: | Flood disasters caused by heavy rain events occur frequently in the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze in monsoonal rainy season.The risk of heavy rain events is an important topic in meteorological research in China.Therefore,risk rank of flood disaster in six provinces in the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze(Hubei, Hunan,Anhui,Jiangxi,Jiangsu and Zhejiang) are assessed based on most recently updated meteorological disaster losses dataset collected by the Ministry of Civil Affairs,National Disaster Reduction... |
| |
| Keywords: | the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze grey association integrated indexes of flood disaster information diffusion risk assessment |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《应用气象学报》浏览原始摘要信息 |
|
点击此处可从《应用气象学报》下载全文 |
