| 我国双季早稻产量的变化规律和预报方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 张宇,赵四强.我国双季早稻产量的变化规律和预报方法[J].应用气象学报,1991,2(4):401-407. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张宇 赵四强 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.国家气象局气象科学研究院
(张宇)，国家气象局气象科学研究院(赵四强) |
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| 摘 要： | 本文根据我国双季稻主产区南方10省（市）双季早稻的产量和面积资料，分析了我国双季早稻生产的地区分布和产量变化规律。应用模糊聚类方法，将我国10个双季早稻生产省（市）分为四个区；根据谐波分析，认为我国双季早稻产量的变化有明显的准两年及其倍数周期；应用积分回归方法，分析了影响我国双季早稻生产的关键气象因子。我们在产量预报业务化试验期间，应用周期分析、环流模式、温度降水模式及专家系统等多种方法预报双季早稻产量，得到了较好的预报效果。
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Evolution of the Early Rice Yield in China and its Prediction Methods |
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| Affiliation: | (Academy of Meteorological Science, SMA) |
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| Abstract: | Based on the data of yield and painting area of early rice from ten provinces of China, the spatial distribution and historical variation of rice production were analyzed. By using fuzzy classification method, the planting areas of ten provinces (city) can be divided into four parts. According to the harmonic analysis, the quasi-biennial fluctuation and its multiple periods were found; and the influences of temperature and precipitation on early rice yield were analyzed by use of regression integral method. During the period of experimental prediction operations from 1987 to 1990, the better results were obtained synthesizing the methods of the harmonic analysis, atmospheric model, temperature-precipitation model experts system. |
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