| 热带气旋强度的卫星探测客观估计方法研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 王瑾,江吉喜.热带气旋强度的卫星探测客观估计方法研究[J].应用气象学报,2005,16(3):283-292. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王瑾 江吉喜 |
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| 作者单位： | 国家卫星气象中心, 北京100081 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国人民解放军总装备部“卫星资料在军事气象要素和重要天气监测中的应用研究”课题资助，“卫星遥感辐射亮度温度数据源建设”(2002DEA300410504)课题资助。 |
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| 摘 要： | 运用2001～2002年6月10日到8月10日西北太平洋上15个热带气旋的日本静止气象卫星（GMS-5）高分辨率红外辐射亮温（TBB）资料，从代表热带气旋强度的热带气旋云系特征中选取多个TBB因子及热带气旋中心所在纬度等因子，结合《热带气旋年鉴》资料，采用逐步回归方法，经多次试验求得热带气旋强度的客观估计算式，复相关系数达到0.80以上。由此式估计的热带气旋中心气压，经24 h滑动平均后的结果与年鉴气压的复相关系数提高到0.89，且两者之间的气压差在±10 hPa之内的占整个样本数的83%以上，与美国新近展示的相关研究结果十分接近。用2000年两个热带气旋作检验，结果很好。该客观方法有望替代目前的Dvorak主观估计方法，成为一种新的业务方法。
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| 关 键 词： | 热带气旋强度 辐射亮温(TBB) 逐步回归 |
| 收稿时间： | 2004-02-09 |
| 修稿时间： | 2004年2月9日 |
An Objective Technique for Estimating Tropical Cyclone Intensity from Geostationary Meteorological Satellite Observation |
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| Wang Jin Jiang Jixi.An Objective Technique for Estimating Tropical Cyclone Intensity from Geostationary Meteorological Satellite Observation[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,2005,16(3):283-292. |
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| Authors: | Wang Jin Jiang Jixi |
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| Affiliation: | National Satellite Meteorological Center , Beijing 100081 |
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| Abstract: | An objective technique for estimating tropical cyclone (TC) intensity is proposed in the context of GMS-5 blackbody temperatures (TBB) from 15 TCs over the northwestern Pacific Ocean during 2001—2002 and multiple TBB factors taken form the TC intensity-representative cloud system as well as the latitude of TC cores and the data from the Tropical Cyclones Annual that are treated by stepwise regression, leading to an objective scheme for TC intensity estimation after a number of experiments, with the complex correlation coefficient being more than 0.80. The scheme-estimated TC central pressures show the complex correlation coefficient of 0.89 between 24 h running mean and the annual, used samples having ±10 hPa difference between the two sources are more than 83%, the result is close to the result reported by US researchers. Also, validations of two TCs recorded in 2000 is successful, it is likely that the scheme will replace the subjective technique of Dvorak in current use to be a new method on a operational basis. |
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| Keywords: | Tropical cyclone intensity Black-body temperature Stepwise regression |
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