| 东海区域热带气旋路径统计动力预报研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 李慧武,金一鸣.东海区域热带气旋路径统计动力预报研究[J].应用气象学报,1996,7(3):316-322. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李慧武 金一鸣 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.浙江省气象科学研究所 |
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| 基金项目： | “八五”国家科技攻关项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 文章主要介绍了东海区域热带气旋路径统计动力预报方案及其使用情况。该方案在原有台风路径统计动力预报方案的基础上调整了预报区域，重新选取了历史样本；延长了预报时效；对随机参数的相关因子，尤其是其中的天气经验因子进行了改进，并引进了欧洲中期数值预报中心的数值预报产品因子。另外，还对有关因子的重要性做了分析研究。经独立样本检验和实时预报表明，该方案的热带气旋预报路径和实际路径相当吻合，各项误差比同类产品明显减小，对实际业务预报服务具有较好的参考价值。
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| 关 键 词： | 东海区域 热带气旋路径 统计动力预报 |
The Statistical-dynamic Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Track on the East China Sea |
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| Li Huiwu,Jin Yiming.The Statistical-dynamic Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Track on the East China Sea[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,1996,7(3):316-322. |
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| Authors: | Li Huiwu Jin Yiming |
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| Affiliation: | 1.(Zhejiang Meteorological Institute, Hangzhou 310031) |
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| Abstract: | The scheme of the statistical-dynamic prediction for the tropical cyclone track on the East China Sea and its application are described. Based on its original scheme, the forecasting area is adjusted and the historical samples are afresh selected; the period of validity is prolonged; the correlation factors of stochastic parameters are improved and the weather empirical factors are objective; and the products of numerical prediction are introduced from ECMWF.The independent sample test and the real-time prediction show that the forecasting tracks of tropical cyclones are very similar to the real tracks, and every error of the forecasting products of the scheme is obviously less than that of other schemes |
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| Keywords: | The East China Seal Tropical cyclone track Statistical-dynamic prediction |
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