| 四川冕宁“6.26”大暴雨模式预报检验 |
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| 引用本文： | 曹萍萍,陈朝平,范江琳.四川冕宁“6.26”大暴雨模式预报检验[J].高原山地气象研究,2022,42(1):61-69. |
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| 作者姓名： | 曹萍萍 陈朝平 范江琳 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.四川省气象台, 成都 610072 |
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| 基金项目： | 气象预报业务关键技术发展专项（YBGJXM（2020）2A-14）；高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室科技发展基金重大专项（SCQXKJZD202101） |
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| 摘 要： | 运用气象观测资料和GRAPES、ECMWF、SWCWARMS_9KM(简称SWC)模式预报资料，对冕宁“6.26”大暴雨天气过程模式预报性能进行检验。结果表明:（1）对于24 h累计降水预报，中尺度区域模式优势明显，量级与落区预报效果均为最好，其中GRAPES_3KM模式预报落区分布与实况重合度较高，暴雨及以上量级降水TS评分最高。（2）GRAPES_3KM模式最大小时雨强10 mm以上降水落区与实况大雨及以上量级降水落区匹配度最高，ECMWF模式24 h累计降水多物理量订正产品及短时强降水概率产品次之。（3）SWC及GRAPES_3KM模式24 h累计降水极值点相比实况略偏北，量级偏小。对于小时降水峰值出现时间，SWC模式偏早4 h，GRAPES_3KM模式偏早3 h。（4）GRAPES_GFS模式环流背景预报更接近实况，SWC模式能较好地预报出冕宁上空中尺度辐合系统的存在。
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| 关 键 词： | 暴雨 24 h降水检验 预报衍生产品 集合预报 小时雨强 形势场检验 |
| 收稿时间： | 2021-06-22 |
Verification of Multi-models Prediction Test for a Heavy Rain on June 26 in Mianning |
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| Affiliation: | 1.Sichuan Provincial Meteorological Observatory, Chengdu 610072, China2.Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu 610072, China |
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| Abstract: | The performance of the model forecast of the June 26 heavy rainstorm in Mianning was tested in detail by using meteorological observation data and multi-models forecast data. The results show that: (1) For the 24h cumulative precipitation forecast, meso-scale regional model had obvious advantages, and the precipitation level and fall zone were the best. The distribution of fall zone of GRAPES_3KM was highly consistent with the actual situation, and it’s TS score of large precipitation over 50mm was the highest. (2) The maximum hourly rainfall intensity of GRAPES_3KM over 10mm matched the actual precipitation fall zone best, followed by the revised product of accumulated precipitation of multiple physical quantities in ECMWF 24h and the probability product of short-time heavy precipitation. (3) The 24h cumulative precipitation extreme points of SWC and GRAPES_3KM models were slightly norther than the actual situation, and the magnitude was smaller. For the peak time of hourly precipitation, SWC model was 4h earlier and GRAPES_3KM was 3h earlier. (4) The forecast of GRAPES_GFS situation field was closer to the actual situation, and SWC model could better predict the existence of mesoscale convergence system over Mianning. |
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