| 近10年四川盆地低能见度时空分布特征及订正方法研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 黄楚惠,王彬雁,陈朝平,等.近10年四川盆地低能见度时空分布特征及订正方法研究[J].高原山地气象研究,2019,39(4):67-73. |
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| 作者姓名： | 黄楚惠 王彬雁 陈朝平 等 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 四川省气象台/高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室,成都 610072; |
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| 基金项目： | 高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验(2019-青年-02)；高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验(2018-重点-06“基于实时误差分析的多要素订正技术研究”) |
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| 摘 要： | 利用2009～2018年全省国家基本站观测资料，研究了四川盆地低能见度时空分布特征，并结合低能见度与地面气象要素的关系获取订正阈值，在此基础上采用概率匹配法对SWC能见度预报进行订正研究。结果表明:(1)低能见度区域小值区主要位于盆地东南部、眉山、乐山以及成都东部，并且从秋季开始整个低能见度区域有明显向北扩大的趋势，且低能见度日数分布范围明显增多；冬季低能见度日数分布类似秋季，但集中于盆地东北部。低能见度开始时间多在00:00～08:00时，结束时间在07:00～12:00时。(2)< 1km低能见度主要出现在风速< 2m/s，相对湿度基本处于90%以上，地面温度低于15℃及24小时变压范围在-2～10hPa。(3)采用概率密度匹配结合要素的双重订正方法可以很好地对四川部分能见度区域进行订正，订正后Ts评分显著高于订正前。
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| 关 键 词： | 低能见度 时空特征 模式订正 四川盆地 |
| 收稿时间： | 2019-08-01 |
Analysis of Temporal and Spatial Distribution Characteristics of Low Visibility over the Last Ten Years in Sichuan Basin,China and Correction Methods for Model Forecasts |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Sichuan Meteorological Observatory / Heavy rain and Drought-Flood Disaster in Plateau and Basin key laboratory of Sichuan Province,Chengdu 610072,China;2. Chengdu Meteorological Bureau,Chengdu 610071, China |
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| Abstract: | Based on the observation data of National Basic Weather Stations in Sichuan for 2009-2018,the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of low visibility in Sichuan Basin were studied.The SWC model visibility forecast was corrected by using probability density function matching method based on the correction threshold that was obtained by combining the relationship between low visibility and surface meteorological elements.The analysis shows that:(1)The area with low-visibility is mainly located in the southeast of Sichuan basin,Meishan,Leshan and Eastern Chengdu.The whole low-visibility area has a obvious tendency to move northwardly , and the distribution of low-visibility days increases significantly in autumn; the distribution of low visibility days in winter is similar to that in autumn,but areas with low-visibility is concentrated in the northeast of the basin.Low visibility episodes usually start at 0:00-8:00 and ends at 7:00-12:00 during one day.(2)The low visibility < 1 km mainly appears in stations where wind speed is less than 2 m/s,the relative humidity is basically above 90%,the surface temperature is lower than 15 °C and the 24-hour pressure change is between-2 to 10 hPa.(3)The model forecasted visibility in some low-visibility areas can be corrected by using the double correction methods that combined probability density function with meteorological factors.After correction,TS scores were significantly improved. |
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