| 基于多模式集合的中国未来热浪趋势研究北大核心CSCD |
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| 引用本文： | 王磊斌,林齐根,宋世凯,刘强,刘瑞金,靳少非.基于多模式集合的中国未来热浪趋势研究北大核心CSCD[J].气候与环境研究,2022,27(1):183-196. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王磊斌 林齐根 宋世凯 刘强 刘瑞金 靳少非 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.河北师范大学地理学博士后科研流动站，石家庄 0500242.河北师范大学资源与环境科学学院，石家庄 0500243.河北省环境变化遥感识别技术创新中心，石家庄 0500244.南京信息工程大学地理科学学院，南京 2100445.北京城市气象研究院，北京 1000896.闽江学院地理与海洋学院，福州 350108 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点研发计划项目2018YFC1507801，河北师范大学科研基金资助项目L2021B26、13505275，河北省自然科学基金资助项目D2021205013 |
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| 摘 要： | 全球变化导致极端天气事件频发,尤其是高温热浪严重影响我国农业生态系统及人类健康。关于热浪事件的定义一直存在着许多争议,对热浪变化趋势空间分布特征的认识有待进一步提高。本文使用气温日较差、绝对温度与相对温度相结合的热浪指标,基于9个CMIP6气候模式的多模式集合结果,评估了可持续发展情景(SSP1-2.6)、中度发展情景(SSP2-4.5)及常规排放情境(SSP5-8.5)下未来中国高温热浪事件的时空分布及变化特征。结果表明:(1)SSP1-2.6情景下未来热浪事件在2050年前后达到顶峰,之后趋于稳定,而在SSP2-4.5情景下,热浪频次、日数及最长持续时间均呈现上升态势,SSP5-8.5情景下热浪的增长趋势及严重程度均为最高;(2)华南、华中地区未来面临更大的热浪风险,SSP5-8.5情景下的热浪频次及强度约是SSP1-2.6的2倍及以上,SSP2-4.5约是SSP1-2.6的1.5倍;(3)西部干旱/半干旱地区、内蒙古东部干旱地区出现较大范围的热浪,结合本文中热浪定义,预示着夜间变暖是全球变暖的一个重要特征。研究结果有助于理解可持续发展、中等强迫情景下我国未来的热浪频次和强度的变化特征,为区域发展节能减排方案的制定提供有效参考。
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| 关 键 词： | 热浪 热浪趋势 多模式集合 未来预估 |
| 收稿时间： | 2021-06-15 |
Future Heatwave Trends in China Based on Multimodel Ensemble |
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| WANG Leibin,LIN Qigen,SONG Shikai,LIU Qiang,LIU Ruijin,JIN Shaofei.Future Heatwave Trends in China Based on Multimodel Ensemble[J].Climatic and Environmental Research,2022,27(1):183-196. |
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| Authors: | WANG Leibin LIN Qigen SONG Shikai LIU Qiang LIU Ruijin JIN Shaofei |
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| Abstract: | With the intensification of global climate change, extreme weather events will become more frequent, especially heatwaves, seriously affecting agroecosystems and human health. There have been many controversies about the definition of heatwave events, and understanding the spatial distribution characteristics of heatwave trends needs further improvement. Compared with definitions of absolute or relative temperature, this paper adopts a heatwave indicator that considers the daily temperature range and combines both absolute and relative temperature. The spatial distribution and temporal change characteristics of future heatwave events in China were evaluated based on the results of a multimodel ensemble of nine CMIP6 climate models under three different development scenarios: (1) SSP1-2.6, (2) SSP2-4.5, and (3) SSP5-8.5. Results show that (1) future heatwave events under the SSP1-2.6 scenario peaked around 2050 and then stabilized, while the frequency, days, and longest duration of heatwaves under the SSP2-4.5 scenario showed an increasing trend. The growth trend and severity of heatwaves under the SSP5-8.5 scenario are both the highest. (2) South China and Central China will face a greater risk of heatwave occurrence in the future. The frequency and intensity of heatwaves under the SSP5-8.5 scenario are about twice or more than those of SSP1-2.6, while those of SSP2-4.5 are about 1.5 times those of SSP1-2.6. (3) The occurrence of heatwaves of a larger scale in arid/semiarid regions in the west and arid regions in eastern Inner Mongolia, combined with the definition of heatwaves in this paper, predicts that nocturnal warming is an important feature of global warming. Results of the study help to understand the characteristics of future changes in the frequency and intensity of heatwaves in China under sustainable development and medium forcing scenarios and provide effective references for developing energy conservation and emission reduction programs for regional development. |
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