| 日本南海海槽发生罕遇地震情况下我国华东沿海的海啸危险性研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 温燕林,赵文舟,李伟,薛艳,于海英.日本南海海槽发生罕遇地震情况下我国华东沿海的海啸危险性研究[J].地震学报,2014,36(4):651-661. |
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| 作者姓名： | 温燕林 赵文舟 李伟 薛艳 于海英 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.中国上海 200062 上海市地震局 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金(41372222);上海市地震局科技专项(2012专10)共同资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 基于日本南海海槽地震活动性和历史海啸事件记载的分析，本文对日本南海海槽发生MW9.1罕遇地震情况下的海啸进行了数值模拟研究.结果表明:该地震可引发初始波幅约10 m的海啸，6个小时后传至浙江沿海，近岸各处波幅为1—2 m；8个小时后靠近上海海岸线，最大波幅约2 m，受地形影响局地爬高至近3 m；11个小时后抵达苏北黄海沿岸，预计波幅普遍在1 m左右.海啸的上岸高度与海岸附近的海深和海岸线的形态密切相关.我国近岸海域地形变化复杂，海湾众多，对海啸波有放大作用，该模拟结果可能比实际传播到近岸时偏小，因此综合评估日本海啸影响我国华东地区的规模m可达1—2级左右.一旦日本南海发生罕遇地震对我国的影响不容忽视，尤其遇上风暴潮与天文大潮叠加，则可能会造成一定程度的海啸灾害.
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| 关 键 词： | 日本南海海槽 罕遇地震 华东沿海海啸危险性 |
| 收稿时间： | 2013-07-25 |
Research on the potential tsunami hazard in East China Coast under rare earthquake occurred in Nankai Trough,Japan |
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| Affiliation: | 1.Earthquake Administration of Shanghai Municipality, Shanghai 200062, China2.China Earthquake Networks Center, Beijing 100045, China |
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| Abstract: | Based on the analysis of seismicity in Nankai Trough and historical tsunami records, rare earthquake with MW9.1 and induced tsunami were studied by numerical simulation. The results show that, the earthquake may cause 10 m tsunami wave initially, and then it propagates to Zhejiang offshore after 6 hours with the wave amplitude getting to 1—2 m; 8 hours later the tsunami is near the coastline of Shanghai with the maximum wave amplitude about 2 m; the tsunami propagates to northern Jiangsu coast after 11 hours, and the wave amplitude generally is expected to 1 m. In fact, the tsunami height near the coast is closely related to the shoreline and the local bathymetry. Because China has many complex gulfs which can amplify the tsunami waves, our simulating data may less than the real amplitudes of tsunami propagating to the local coast. Therefore our comprehensive assessment of tsunami hazard scale is m=1—2 in East China Coast. Once in the Nankai Trough giant earthquake occurred, induced-tsunami effect can not be ignored in China. Especially if the tsunami combines with a storm tide, it may cause tsunami disaster in East China Coast. |
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