| 动力延伸预报产品释用方法的改进试验 |
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| 引用本文： | 江双五,田红,陈丽娟.动力延伸预报产品释用方法的改进试验[J].应用气象学报,2005,16(6):779-786. |
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| 作者姓名： | 江双五 田红 陈丽娟 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.1.南京大学大气科学系, 南京 210093 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国气象局预测减灾应用技术开发推广项目“T63月动力延伸预报解释应用技术面向省级短期气候预测业务的推广”和安徽省气象局2005年度科技带头人专项“安徽汛期旱涝气候变化及预测研究”共同资助. |
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| 摘 要： | 依据动力延伸预报产品释用方法中所建立的月降水距平百分率预报方程，将方程系数看成是动态系数，采用与预报月高度场相似月份的资料作为样本资料，通过改善方程系数的计算来提高月降水预报。1998～2004年的历史实况资料在安徽省的回报实验证明:在目前T63／NCC月动力延伸预报产品的准确率不能快速提高的情况下，该方法具有实际应用价值。利用T63／NCC月动力延伸产品进行安徽省月降水预报应用亦取得较好的效果。
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| 关 键 词： | 动力延伸预报 相似资料 月降水预报 |
| 收稿时间： | 2005-03-15 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005-07-16 |
Improved Experiment on the Explanation and Analyses Method of Dynamical Extended Range Forecast Products |
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| Jiang Shuangwu,Tian Hong,Chen Lijuan.Improved Experiment on the Explanation and Analyses Method of Dynamical Extended Range Forecast Products[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,2005,16(6):779-786. |
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| Authors: | Jiang Shuangwu Tian Hong Chen Lijuan |
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| Affiliation: | 1.Department of Atmospheric Scienecs, Nanjing University , Nanjing 2100932.Anhui Prouincial Meteorological Observatory , Hefei 2300613.The Laboratory of Climate S tudy , National Climate Center , CMA , Beijing 100081 |
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| Abstract: | Based on a relationship between monthly precipitation anomaly and monthly circulation,the forecast equation coefficients are calculated as variables.The sample data are selected from which has similar potential height field to that in the forecast month.The monthly rainfall forecasts is improved by calculating the equation coefficients.The latest seven-year hindcast tests proves that the method of calculating of coefficients has certain value in operational application.Under the consideration of a limited accuracy of T63/NCC monthly dynamical extended-range forecast products(T63/NCC MDERFP).Also,results are obtained in the application of monthly rainfall forecast of Anhui Province by T63/NCC MDERFP. |
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| Keywords: | Dynamical extended range frocast Similar data Monthly precipitation forecast |
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