| 水资源需求驱动因素分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 袁宝招,陆桂华,李原园,郦建强.水资源需求驱动因素分析[J].水科学进展,2007,18(3):404-409. |
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| 作者姓名： | 袁宝招 陆桂华 李原园 郦建强 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.河海大学水资源环境学院, 江苏, 南京, 210098; |
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| 基金项目： | 全国水资源综合规划专题研究项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 根据我国1980-2000年国民经济实际用水状况,简要分析了水资源需求的驱动因素,建立了水资源需求驱动因素综合分析模型,并根据模型进行了实例计算和分析.结果表明:(1)1980-2000年全国总用水增加了1 220亿m3,其中工业和生活用水增长是国民经济用水增长的直接原因;(2)全国而言,排在前四位的正向驱动因素分别是工业增加值、农田灌溉面积、人口以及林牧渔需(补)水面积.负向驱动因素分别是农田灌溉定额的下降,其次是工业用水定额的下降;(3)对生活用水而言,北方省份人口增长对生活需水增长的贡献较突出,南方省份则是生活用水定额的提高对生活需水增长的贡献较突出;(4)对工业用水而言,工业规模的扩大是驱动工业需水增长的主要因素;北方省份工业用水定额下降对抑制工业需水增长的贡献率明显;(5)农田灌溉面积变化对农田灌溉需水变化影响较大.分析结果为把握我国未来水资源需求变化态势,合理配置水资源提供依据.
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| 关 键 词： | 水资源需求 驱动因素 分析模型 |
| 文章编号： | 1001-6791（2007）03-0404-06 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006-03-11 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-03-112006-06-23 |
Analysis of driving factors for water demand |
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| YUAN Bao-zhao,LU Gui-hua,LI Yuan-yuan,LI Jian-qiang.Analysis of driving factors for water demand[J].Advances in Water Science,2007,18(3):404-409. |
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| Authors: | YUAN Bao-zhao LU Gui-hua LI Yuan-yuan LI Jian-qiang |
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| Affiliation: | 1.College of Water Resource and Environment Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China;2.General Institute of Water Resources & Hydropower Planning and Design, MWR, Beijing 100045, China |
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| Abstract: | According to the data of water consumption from 1980 to 2000 in China,this paper analyze simply the driving factors for water demand,and construct a model for the case study on the contribution ratio of every driving factor changing water demand.The main conclusions involve:(1) The rise of industrial and residential water consumption is the direct cause of water consumption increase;(2) The top fourth positive driving factors are the increase of industrial production value,irrigation area,population,and area of forest,herd and fishing.The decrease of farm irrigation quota plays a first important role in constraining water demand while the decrease of industrial water consumption quota plays the second one;(3)Although population rise is the main contributor of residential water demand increase in North China,the increase of the average residential water consumption quota is more important in South China;(4)Industrial scale enlargement is the main driving factor for the industrial water demand,and the decline of water consumption of unit value is quite serious in North China;And(5)variation of the farm irrigation area has great influence on the farm water demand. |
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| Keywords: | water demand driving factors analysis model |
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