| 降雨型滑坡时间概率的逻辑回归拟合及连续概率滑坡危险性建模 |
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| 引用本文： | 黄发明,陈佳武,范宣梅,黄劲松,周创兵.降雨型滑坡时间概率的逻辑回归拟合及连续概率滑坡危险性建模[J].地球科学,2022,47(12):4609-4628. |
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| 作者姓名： | 黄发明 陈佳武 范宣梅 黄劲松 周创兵 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.南昌大学建筑工程学院, 江西南昌 330031 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目41807285江西省自然科学基金20192BAB216034中国博士后面上基金2019M652287中国博士后面上基金2020T130274江西省博士后基金2019KY08地灾防治与环境保护国家重点实验室开放基金SKLGP2021K012 |
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| 摘 要： | 提高降雨型滑坡危险性预警精度和空间辨识度具有重要意义.以江西宁都县1980—2001年156个降雨型滑坡为例，首先基于传统的EE-D（early effective rainfall-rainfall duration）阈值法计算不同降雨诱发滑坡的时间概率级别；然后以各级别临界降雨阈值曲线对应的时间概率为因变量，并以对应的前期有效降雨量（early effective rainfall，EE）和降雨历时（D）为自变量，采用逻辑回归拟合出上述因变量与自变量之间的非线性关系，得到降雨诱发滑坡的连续概率值；之后对比C5.0决策树和多层感知器的滑坡易发性预测性能；最后利用降雨诱发滑坡的连续概率值与易发性图相耦合以实现连续概率滑坡危险性预警.结果显示:（1）宁都降雨型滑坡连续概率值的逻辑回归方程为1/P=1+e4.062+0.747 4×D-0.079 44×EE，其拟合优度为0.983；（2）2002—2003年的20处用于连续概率阈值测试的降雨型滑坡大都落在连续概率值大于0.7的区域，只有4处落在小于0.7的区域；（3）C5.0决策树预测滑坡易发性的精度显著高于多层感知器；（4）近5年的4次降雨型滑坡的连续概率危险性值都在0.8以上，且高和极高预警区的面积较传统滑坡危险性分区更小.可见连续概率滑坡危险性预警法相较于传统危险性分区法具有更高的预警精度和空间辨识度，且通过叠加滑坡易发性图及其临界降雨阈值可开展实时滑坡危险性预警制图.
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| 关 键 词： | 滑坡危险性预警 连续概率降雨阈值 临界降雨阈值 滑坡易发性 逻辑回归方程 决策树模型 工程地质 |
| 收稿时间： | 2021-07-26 |
Logistic Regression Fitting of Rainfall-Induced Landslide Occurrence Probability and Continuous Landslide Hazard Prediction Modelling |
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| Abstract: | It is significant to improve the warning accuracy and spatial identification of rainfall-induced landslides. This study takes 156 typical rainfall-induced landslide events from 1980 to 2001 in Ningdu County Jiangxi Province, China as a case. Firstly, the time probability levels of different rainfall-induced landslides are calculated based on traditional EE-D (early effective rainfall-rainfall duration) threshold. Then taking each time probability corresponding to each level critical rainfall threshold curve as dependent variable, and its early effective rainfall (early effective rainfall, EE) and rainfall duration (D) as independent variables, logistic regression is adopted to fitting nonlinear mapping relationship between probability of rainfall-induced landslides and EE and D to obtain continuous probability of landslides. Furthermore, prediction performance of landslide susceptibility between C5.0 decision tree and multilayer perceptron is compared. Finally, continuous probability of rainfall-induced landslides is coupled with landslide susceptibility to realize continuous landslide hazard warning. Results show follows: (1) logistic regression fitting equation of continuous probability rainfall-induced landslides is 1/P=1+e4.062+0.747 4×D-0.079 44×EE with R2 of 0.983. (2) most of 20 rainfall-induced landslides from 2002 to 2003 used for continuous probability critical rainfall threshold test fell in areas with continuous probability greater than 0.7, and only 4 of them fell in areas less than 0.7. (3) the C5.0 DT model has a better prediction performance than the multilayer perceptron. (4) the continuous probability hazard values of four rainfall-type landslides in the past five years are above 0.8, and the areas of high and very high warning zone are smaller than those of traditional landslide hazard warning. It is concluded that compared with the traditional hazard zoning method, the continuous landslide hazard warning method has higher warning accuracy and spatial identification, and the real time landslide hazard map carrying out spatial and time warning can be obtained through combination of landslide critical rainfall threshold and landslide susceptibility map. |
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