| 地震活动性研究中的非线性动力学模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 朱元清,石耀霖.地震活动性研究中的非线性动力学模型[J].地球物理学报,1991,34(1):20-31. |
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| 作者姓名： | 朱元清 石耀霖 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国科学技术大学地球和空间科学系, 合肥 230026;
2. 中国科学院研究生院地学部, 北京 100039 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文利用非线性动力学模型研究了断层带的地震活动特性.断层系由多个耦合非线性单元模拟,每个基本单元由Maxwell体和刚性滑块组成.滑块的运动满足静、动摩擦强度本构关系.理论模拟的地震活动在短时间内是随机的,但当时间尺度足够大时,断层带的总体活动表现出某种规律性.多数实际观测到的地震活动现象均在这些非线性动力学模型中出现. 本文提出转换概率的观点来度量断层间和孕震区间的地震转移.模拟中发现活动地震带中存在条件安全区,这可能对地震预报的实践有重要的意义.
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| 关 键 词： | 非线性动力学模型 地震活动性 数值模拟 |
| 收稿时间： | 1989-07-12 |
NONLINEAR DYNAMIC MODELING IN SEISMICITY ANALYSIS |
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| ZHU YUAN-QING.NONLINEAR DYNAMIC MODELING IN SEISMICITY ANALYSIS[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,1991,34(1):20-31. |
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| Authors: | ZHU YUAN-QING |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Dcpt. of Earth and Space Science, Univ. of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026;
2. Dcpt of Earth Sciences, Graduate School, Academia Sinica, Beijing 100039 |
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| Abstract: | Nonlinear dynamic models have been used to study the characteristic seismicity of fault zones in this paper. Each segment of faults modeled by a basic nonlinear element, consists of an Maxwell model in series with a rigid sliding block, the constitutive relation of dynamic and static frictional strengths is assigned to the sliding block. In the modeling, the spatial and temporal distribution of earthquakes appears random in a short time scale, but in a time long enough, the overall behavior of the system show sort of regularities. Most actually observed precursors also appear in these nonlinear dynamic models.The concept of transition probability have been proposed to calibrate the transfer among the faults and segments. The model predicts that there are conditional safe islands in seismic activity zone 'may be of practical importance in earthquake forecasting. |
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| Keywords: | Nonlinear dynamic model Seismicity Numerical simulation |
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