| 海河流域生态环境承载能力计算 |
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| 引用本文： | 朱永华,夏军,刘苏峡,贾绍凤,丰华丽.海河流域生态环境承载能力计算[J].水科学进展,2005,16(5):649-654. |
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| 作者姓名： | 朱永华 夏军 刘苏峡 贾绍凤 丰华丽 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室, 水资源环境学院, 江苏, 南京, 210098; |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目(50279049)，中国科学院知识创新领域前沿项目(CX10G-E01-08)，海河水利委员会生态修复规划科研专项资助~~ |
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| 摘 要： | 利用多目标多阶段互动优化模型计算了海河流域生态环境承载力,确定了海河流域在南水北调、经济常规发展、生态环境逐步改善情况下的承载能力过程变化,结果表明:①海河流域现状处于严重的生态环境不可承载状态;②到2033年海河流域生态环境恢复到生态环境社会经济复合系统的良好状态;③海河流域生态环境临界可承载年2033年,可承载人口为15 730万,比自然预测人口15 100万多630万,工业、农业、生态及生活用水量占总用水量的比例将分别是28%、43%、18%、11%。
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| 关 键 词： | 生态环境 承载能力 多目标多阶段互动优化模型 海河流域 |
| 文章编号： | 1001-6791（2005）05-0649-06 |
| 收稿时间： | 2004-08-16 |
| 修稿时间： | 2004-10-20 |
Calculation of carrying capacity of eco-environments in Haihe River basins |
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| ZHU Yong-hua,XIA Jun,LIU Su-xia,JIA Shao-feng,FENG Hua-li.Calculation of carrying capacity of eco-environments in Haihe River basins[J].Advances in Water Science,2005,16(5):649-654. |
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| Authors: | ZHU Yong-hua XIA Jun LIU Su-xia JIA Shao-feng FENG Hua-li |
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| Abstract: | An interactional optimization model of multi-objectives and multi steps is used to calculate the carrying capacity of eco-environments related to water,and determine the course change of the carrying capacity in the case of the water supply of “South-to-North Water”. Transfer Project,the economical normal development and the graduall amelioration of eco-environments.The results are as follows ①Haihe River basin is now in a serious over loading state of eco-environments.Haihe River basins will not reach a good eco-environmental state and,at the same time,not reach a good social and economical state until 2033.②in 2033,when the eco-environments is in a loadable state,the population wil amout to 157.30 millions,6.30 millions more than the natural increasing population of 151 00 millions and the optimal proportion of water use will be 28%, 43%,18% and 11% in industry,agriculture,ecology and life,respectively. |
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| Keywords: | eco-environments carrying capacity interactional optimization model of multi-objectives and multi-steps Haihe River basins |
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