| 相当湿位涡异常与梅雨锋暴雨分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 张研,陈忠明.相当湿位涡异常与梅雨锋暴雨分析[J].高原山地气象研究,2015,35(3):26-31. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张研 陈忠明 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 成都信息工程大学大气科学学院, 高原大气与环境四川省重点实验室, 成都 610225; |
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| 摘 要： | 基于位涡异常与中尺度对流系统发展密切相关的分析事实，以及中尺度天气的发生发展的过程中水汽的重要作用，在引入水汽变化方程的基础上，导出了非均匀饱和大气中的相当湿位涡方程，进而分析了引起相当湿位涡异常的主要因子。依据相当湿位涡包含动力因子、热力因子和水汽因子的特点，利用相当湿位涡及增量对一次梅雨锋暴雨进行诊断和模拟分析，初步揭示了相当湿位涡及其增量对梅雨锋强降水的指示意义，相当湿位涡及其增量大值区对未来1～3小时的强降水具有较好的指示作用。针对梅雨锋暴雨，可以将梅雨湿度锋与相当湿位涡相结合作为强降水短时临近预报的一个指标。
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| 关 键 词： | 相当湿位涡 相当湿位涡异常 暴雨分析和预报 |
| 收稿时间： | 2015-09-02 |
Verification of Equivalent Moist Potential Vorticity and Analysis of Forecast of Torrential Rain |
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| Affiliation: | 1. College of Atmospheric Sciences, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu 610225, China;2. Meteorological Bureau of Sichuan Province, Chengdu 610072, China |
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| Abstract: | Based on factual analysis that potential vorticity anomaly is closely related to meso－scale convective system and important role of moist in genesis and development of meso－ scale weather，equivalent moist potential vorticity(EMPV) equation in non－uniformly saturated atmosphere is defined on the basis of introduction of moist variant equation and then analyze important factor induced by anomaly of EMPV．Focusing on basic feature of plum humidity fronts，reasons of anomaly of EMPV and vorticity increase induced by arrangement of humidity front and flow field has been analyzed kinetically and kinetic effects of plum rain front and its impacts on the genesis and development of meso－scale system have been primarily revealed．Theoretical analysis show that:EMPV takes into account dynamic，thermal and water vapor effect on atmosphere，and reflects mutual relationship among dynamical variance，thermal change and vapor influence．Through diagnostic analysis，we found that positive and negative anomaly of EMPV have some indication signification for rainstorm area forecast and precipitation trend forecast at single station．To verify the effect of rainstorm forecast on these physical parameter，FNL1°×1°grid data by 4 times a day，output data derived from meso－scale numerical model WRF based on background of FNL1°×1°grid data by 4 times a day and rain data from surface observation are selected to diagnose and analyze EMPV anomaly of a process of continuous precipitation and its average precipitation variation in the Jiang－ huai region in Jun．2010．The results show:the EMPV in the low，to some extent，reflects rainstorm area and its intensity tendency．That is，future precipitation might increase(or decrease) when change value of EMPV shows positive(or negative) anomaly，which gives a qualitative intensity forecast of whether precipitation is reinforced or weakened．Therefore，variation of EMPV is able to provide mobile tendency and intensity variation forecast of rainstorm area and timeliness of one to three hours． |
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