| 基于最大熵原理的四川省干旱灾害致灾危险性研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 杨庭潇,马力.基于最大熵原理的四川省干旱灾害致灾危险性研究[J].高原山地气象研究,2021,41(3):103-107. |
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| 作者姓名： | 杨庭潇 马力 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.成都信息工程大学，成都 610225 |
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| 摘 要： | 依据最大熵原理推导所得干旱相关气象要素概率分布规律，使用2006~2020年四川省加密自动气象观测站日气温、日降水量数据以及国家气候中心MCI数据，选取其中符合四川省干旱标准的个例，分析其气象要素与实际灾害损失关联度，由此研究其致灾危险性，结果表明干旱灾害致灾危险性指数能正确反映一次干旱过程致灾能力大小，有利于减小干旱灾害风险评估工作难度。
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| 关 键 词： | 四川省 干旱灾害 最大熵原理 致灾危险性 |
| 收稿时间： | 2021-05-08 |
Research on the Disaster Hazard of Drought Disasters in Sichuan Province Based on the Principle of Maximum Entropy |
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| Affiliation: | 1.Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu 610225, China2.Sichuan Meteorological Bureau, Chengdu 610072, China |
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| Abstract: | Based on the principle of maximum entropy, the probability distribution of drought-related meteorological elements is derived. The data of daily temperature and daily precipitation from the fully automatic meteorological observation stations in Sichuan Province from 2006 to 2020 and the MCI data of the National Climate Center are used to select the cases that meet the drought criteria of Sichuan Province, and analyze the correlation between meteorological elements and actual disaster losses, so as to study its disaster-causing ability. The obtained drought disaster hazard index can accurately reflect the disaster capacity of a drought process, which is conducive to reducing the difficulty of drought disaster risk assessment. |
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