| 盐源烤烟冰雹灾害精细化风险区划研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 徐学艳,卿清涛,周刚.盐源烤烟冰雹灾害精细化风险区划研究[J].高原山地气象研究,2021,41(4):136-141. |
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| 作者姓名： | 徐学艳 卿清涛 周刚 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.四川省盐源县气象局，盐源 615700 |
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| 基金项目： | 高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室项目（2018-重点-05-12）； 四川省科技应用基础研究项目（2018JY0643，2018JY0341） |
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| 摘 要： | 以1986~2015年盐源所在的攀西地区20个县（市）地面冰雹观测资料为基础，建立了烤烟关键生育期冰雹频次与经度、纬度、海拔高度、坡度和坡向的多元回归方程，结合盐源县烤烟观测资料和2016年社会经济数据，从致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境敏感性、承灾体易损性和防灾减灾能力4个方面，选取烤烟不同生育期的冰雹频次、烤烟播种率、地形、农村经济、土地覆盖等作为区划指标，运用层次分析法建立了盐源县烤烟冰雹灾害的风险区划模型，基于GIS技术完成了盐源县烤烟冰雹灾害风险区划。结果表明，对于盐源县农业用地区域，烤烟冰雹灾害风险等级以中、高等级为主，低风险区域面积较少。
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| 关 键 词： | 烤烟冰雹灾害 风险区划 层次分析法 地理信息系统 |
| 收稿时间： | 2021-06-11 |
Study on Delicate Risk Zoning of Hail Disaster of Flue-cured Tobacco in Yanyuan County |
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| Affiliation: | 1.Yanyuan Meteorological Bureau, Yanyuan 615700, China2.Sichuan Climate Centre, Chengdu 610072, China3.Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin Key?Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu 610072, China |
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| Abstract: | Based on the ground hail observation data of 20 counties (cities) in Panxi area from 1986 to 2015, the multiple regression equation of hail frequency and longitude, latitude, altitude, slope and aspect in the key growth period of flue-cured tobacco was established. Combined with the observation data of flue-cured tobacco in Yanyuan County and the social and economic data in 2016, from four aspects including the risk of disaster causing factors, sensitivity of disaster pregnant environment, vulnerability of disaster bearing body and ability of disaster prevention and reduction, the hail frequency, tobacco seeding rate, terrain, rural economy and land cover in different growth stages of flue-cured tobacco are selected as zoning indicators. The risk zoning model of flue-cured tobacco hail disaster in Yanyuan County was established by using analytic hierarchy process,and the risk zoning of flue-cured tobacco hail disaster in Yanyuan County was completed based on GIS technology. The results showed that in the agricultural land area of Yanyuan County, the risk level of flue-cured tobacco hail disaster was mainly in medium and high grade, and the area of low-risk area was less. |
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