| 中国电线积冰灾害研究进展 |
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| 引用本文： | 霍治国,李春晖,孔瑞,毛红丹,江梦圆,宋艳玲.中国电线积冰灾害研究进展[J].应用气象学报,2021,32(5):513-529. |
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| 作者姓名： | 霍治国 李春晖 孔瑞 毛红丹 江梦圆 宋艳玲 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.中国气象科学研究院, 北京 100081 |
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| 摘 要： | 电线积冰灾害是导致电力系统发生事故的重要自然灾害之一。基于已有研究成果，从电线积冰相关概念与分类出发，对电线积冰的影响与危害、时空分布、成因、影响因子、预报模型、风险评估以及预防措施等方面进行归纳。我国电线积冰灾害以雾凇型积冰和雨凇型积冰为主，主要环境成因包括准静止锋、大气垂直结构和逆温层，同时还受到地形、高度和导线自身特性等的影响。电线积冰灾害总体上呈现北方多雾凇而南方多雨凇的分布特征，20世纪80—90年代的积冰日数较多，90年代后呈下降趋势。为更好地实现电线积冰灾害的模拟与预测，预报模型也在不断完善，包括物理数值模型和统计预测模型；而对于电线积冰灾害风险评估的研究较少，主要集中在电线积冰灾害的危险性和线路的脆弱性。基于多学科指标构建的电线积冰综合性指标、基于灾变过程的综合风险评估及气候变化对电线积冰的影响将是今后重点研究方向。
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| 关 键 词： | 电线积冰 影响与危害 气象因素 预报模型 |
| 收稿时间： | 2021-03-10 |
Review on Disaster of Wire Icing in China |
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| Affiliation: | 1.Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 1000812.Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 2100443.China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074 |
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| Abstract: | The disaster of wire icing is one important natural disaster that causes accidents in the power system. Its research progress is summarized from the related concepts and classification of wire icing, the influence and hazard of wire icing, temporal and spatial distribution characteristics, causes, influence factors, forecast models, risk assessment, and preventive measures are integrated. Besides, the further research directions of wire icing are also investigated. In China, wire icing can be classified as two major kinds, including glaze ice and rime ice. The hazards caused by wire icing mainly include line overload accidents, adjacent uneven ice coating or deicing accidents in different periods, insulator string ice flash accidents, and ice-coated wire galloping accidents. The most important conditions for ice accretion are the presence of cold air and sufficient water vapor conditions, which are closely related to the atmospheric circulation situation. The environmental causes of wire icing also include quasi-stationary fronts, vertical atmospheric structure, and temperature inversion. In addition, it is also affected by meteorological factors, terrain, height, the characteristics of the wires themselves and so on. In general, the disaster of wire icing presents a distribution pattern of rime ice in the north and glaze ice in the south. In the north, the areas with frequent wire icing are scattered, and in the south are distributed in strips. The disaster of wire icing mainly occurs in winter, and occasionally occurs in autumn and spring. The earliest start date is usually in October and the last finish date is in the next April, and the dates vary depending on the latitudes. The disaster of wire icing appears more frequently in the winter months of December, January, and February. Under historical climate warming condition, the number of ice accretions has a change in the 1980s and 1990s, which declines after the 1990s. Since the 1950s, various ice accretion prediction models have been developed. In the early days, some fixed models are proposed, and later, many regional models are established using regression methods, artificial neural networks, support vector machines and other methods. The current risk assessment of disaster of wire icing mainly focuses on risks and vulnerabilities. Future research directions include the comprehensive indicators of wire icing based on multidisciplinary indicators, comprehensive risk assessment based on catastrophic processes, and the impact of climate change on wire icing. |
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