| 中国近百年气温场变化成因的统计诊断分析 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 江志红,丁裕国,金莲姬.中国近百年气温场变化成因的统计诊断分析[J].应用气象学报,1997,8(2):175-185. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 江志红 丁裕国 金莲姬 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 1.南京气象学院 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 中国气象局《八五》重点项目《短期气候预测理论与方法》基金,气象科学青年基金 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 利用BP-CCA方法，诊断中国近百年（1881～1992年）气温场变化之成因。结果表明:（1）CO2浓度增加所导致的温室效应的加剧，与中国近百年增暖趋势的关系最为密切；（2）80年代后，温室效应加剧所起的主导作用更加明显，相应敏感区位于华北北部、东北、西北西部及长江中下游地区；（3）火山活动对气温变化的长期趋势所叠加的波动变化起主要作用，敏感区主要在35°N以南，中心位于西南地区；（4）20年代至40年代增暖可能是温室效应、火山活动和太阳活动多种因素综合作用的结果。而70年代以来的增暖则主要与温室效应的加剧有关。
|
| 关 键 词： | 典型相关分析 气候变化 温室效应 |
Statistical-diagnostic Analysis of Cause for the Change of China’s Temperature Field During the Last 100 Years |
| |
| Jiang Zhihong,Ding Yuguo,Jin Lianji.Statistical-diagnostic Analysis of Cause for the Change of China’s Temperature Field During the Last 100 Years[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,1997,8(2):175-185. |
| |
| Authors: | Jiang Zhihong Ding Yuguo Jin Lianji |
| |
| Affiliation: | 1.(Nanjing Institute of Meteorology, Nanjing 210044) |
| |
| Abstract: | The cause for the changes of China’s temperature fields during the recent 100 years (1881~1992) is diagnosed by using CCA method. The results show that (1) the enhanced greenhouse effect due to the increase of CO2 is more closely correlated with the linear trend of warming in China’s temperature fields and the relationship appears more obviously since 1980s; (2) the sensitive regions of greenhouse effect are located in the northern North China, Northeast China, western Northwest China and the mid-lower reaches of Changjiang River, respectively; (3) the effect caused by volcanism is of relative importance in the fluctuation superposing the long trend, and the sensitive region lies to the south of 35oN, the center is in southwestern China, (4) the warming from 1920s to 1940s seems to be the joint results of the greenhouse effect, volcanism and solar activity, and that by the end of 1970s may be mainly caused by enhanced greenhouse effect. |
| |
| Keywords: | Canonical correlation analysis(CCA) Climatic variation Greenhouse effect |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《应用气象学报》浏览原始摘要信息 |
|
点击此处可从《应用气象学报》下载全文 |
