Monthly prediction of tropical cyclone activity over the South China Sea using the FGOALS-f2 ensemble prediction system |
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| Authors: | Shentong Li Jinxiao Li Jing Yang Qing Bao Yimin Liu Zili Shen |
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| Affiliation: | 1. State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China;2. State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China |
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| Abstract: | The monthly prediction skill for tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the South China Sea (SCS) during the typhoon season (July to November) was evaluated using the FGOALS-f2 ensemble prediction system. Specifically, the prediction skill of the system at a 10-day lead time for monthly TC activity is given based on 35-year (1981–2015) hindcasts with 24 ensemble members. The results show that FGOALS-f2 can capture the climatology of TC track densities in each month, but there is a delay in the monthly southward movement in the area of high track densities of TCs. The temporal correlation coefficient of TC frequency fluctuates across the different months, among which the highest appears in October (0.59) and the lowest in August (0.30). The rank correlation coefficients of TC track densities are relatively higher (R > 0.6) in July, September, and November, while those in August and October are relatively lower (R within 0.2 to 0.6). For real-time prediction of TCs in 2020 (July to November), FGOALS-f2 demonstrates a skillful probabilistic prediction of TC genesis and movement. Besides, the system successfully forecasts the correct sign of monthly anomalies of TC frequency and accumulated cyclone energy for 2020 (July to November) in the SCS.摘要本研究基于新一代FGOALS-f2动力集合预测系统35年 (1981–2015年) 的热带气旋历史回报试验对南海台风季 (7–11月) 热带气旋活动超前10天的月预测技巧进行评估, 并对2020年南海台风季热带气旋活动进行了实时月预测尝试. 结果表明: FGOALS-f2能较好地预测南海热带气旋路径密度演变特征, 预测的热带气旋生成个数与实际观测结果的相关系数在0.2–0.6之间. 2020年实时预测方面, FGOALS-f2较为准确地给出了南海台风季热带气旋生成位置与移动路径的概率预测, 且对南海热带气旋生成个数和强度异常的确定性预测结果与观测接近. |
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| Keywords: | Tropical cyclone South China Sea Monthly prediction Prediction system FGOALS-f2 |
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