A skillful method for precipitation prediction over eastern China |
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| Authors: | Yanyan Huang Huijun Wang Peiyi Zhang |
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| Affiliation: | Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster,Ministry of Education,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing,China;Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai),Zhuhai,China;Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing,China,Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster,Ministry of Education,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing,China;Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai),Zhuhai,China;Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing,China;Climate change research center,Chinese academy of Sciences,Beijing,China,Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster,Ministry of Education,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing,China |
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| Abstract: | Precipitation prediction is essential for disaster prevention,yet it still remains a challenging issue in weather and climate studies.This paper proposes an effective prediction method for summer precipitation over eastern China(PEC) by combining empirical orthogonal function(EOF) analysis with the interannual increment approach.Three statistical prediction models are individually developed for respective predictions of the three principal components(PCs) corresponding to the three leading EOF modes for the interannual increment of PEC(hereafter DY;EC).Each model is run for the month of March with two previous predictors derived from sea-ice concentration/soil moisture/sea surface temperature/snow depth/sea level pressure over specific regions.The predicted PCs are projected to the EOF modes derived from observations of DY;EC to produce a new DY;EC.This new DY;EC is then added to the observed PEC of the previous year to obtain the final predicted PEC.The spatial features of the predicted PEC are highly consistent with observations,with the anomaly correlation coefficient skill ranging from 0.32 to 0.64 during 2012-2020.The method is applied for real-time prediction of PEC in 2021.And the results indicate two rain belts located over northeastern China and the Yangtze-Huaihe River valley,respectively,although the chance for the occurrence of a "super" mei-yu with a similar intensity to that in 2020 would be rare in 2021. |
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| Keywords: | Precipitation prediction Interannual increment approach EOF |
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