| 鲁甸地震(Ms6.5)临震预测、中期预测及中地壳流变结构 |
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| 引用本文： | 曾佐勋,刘根深,李献瑞,贺赤诚,杨学祥,杨冬红.鲁甸地震(Ms6.5)临震预测、中期预测及中地壳流变结构[J].地球科学,2014,39(12):1751-1762. |
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| 作者姓名： | 曾佐勋 刘根深 李献瑞 贺赤诚 杨学祥 杨冬红 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.中国地质大学教育部长江三峡库区地质灾害研究中心, 湖北武汉 430074 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家“985”创新平台建设项目子课题，国家自然科学基金重点项目，国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 2014年8月3日16时30分, 在云南省昭通市鲁甸县(27.1°N, 103.3°E)发生Ms6.5地震, 震源深度10 km, 死亡617人, 失踪112人, 受伤3 143人, 受灾人口108.84万人.根据月亮赤纬角、太阳黑子极值年等周期变化及两者的叠加效应, 总结出2013—2014年是云南强震高危期, 具备Ms7地震的发生条件.次年, 利用基础SW前兆仪的临震预测指纹法信息, 制定了2014年底211号地震预测表, 预测了2014年8月四川(26.18°N, 105.33°E)将发生Ms5.3地震发生.2014年8月3日云南鲁甸Ms6.5地震表明: 这次地震的指纹法预测时间相差1天, 震中相差226 km, 震级误差Ms1.2.通过构造背景、地壳速度结构和震源机制研究, NW向的包谷垴-小河左旋走滑断裂是鲁甸地震的发震断裂.中下地壳低速(高导)体与包谷垴-小河断裂交接部位是流变界面能量释放的位置, 即本次地震的震源位置, 为板内地震三层次构造模式提供了一个新的案例.
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| 关 键 词： | 鲁甸地震 临震预测 中期预测 包谷垴-小河断裂 三层次构造模式 天然地震 |
| 收稿时间： | 2014-09-20 |
Imminent and Medium-Term Predictions for Ludian Earthquake (M s6.5)and Rheological Structure of the Middle Crust |
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| Zeng Zuoxun,Liu Genshen,Li Xianrui,He Chicheng,Yang Xuexiang,Yang Donghong.Imminent and Medium-Term Predictions for Ludian Earthquake (M s6.5)and Rheological Structure of the Middle Crust[J].Earth Science-Journal of China University of Geosciences,2014,39(12):1751-1762. |
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| Authors: | Zeng Zuoxun Liu Genshen Li Xianrui He Chicheng Yang Xuexiang Yang Donghong |
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| Abstract: | At 16:30 of August 3rd, 2014, an earthquake with a magnitude of Ms 6.5 occurred in Ludian County of Zhaotong City, Yunnan Province (27.1°N, 103.3°E). The depth of the hypocenter is 10 km. Due to this disaster, 617 people were died, 112 people disappeared and 108 840 000 people were injured. According to the superposition effects of the moon declination angle, sunspot extreme year cycles and the two, summed up 2013—2014 years is Yunnan strong earthquake periods of high risk, with the condition for the occurrence of Ms7 earthquake. The following year, forecast method based SW fingerprint information using the earthquake precursory instrument, developed by the end of 2014 211 earthquake prediction table, predict 2014 August Sichuan (26.18°N, 105.33°E) Ms5.3 earthquake will occur. The Ludian Ms 6.5 earthquake occurred on August 3, 2014 indicates that the error of the predicted date is only 1 day, the predicted epicenter is about 226 km away from the actual earthquake epicenter. Besides that the actual magnitude is Ms 1.2 larger than the predicted magnitude. According to the comprehensive analysis in tectonic setting, the S-wave crustal velocity structure and the focus mechanism of the Ludian earthquake, we believe that the Baogunao-Xiaohe left-lateral strike-slip fault triggered the Ludian earthquake, while the junction of the middle-low crust's low-velocity (high-conductivity) body and the Baogunao-Xiaohe fault is the location of the focus releasing the accumulated energy which practically is the epicenter.This provides a new case study of the three-level tectonic model for intraplate earthquakes. |
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| Keywords: | Ludian earthquake imminent prediction medium-term prediction Baogunao-Xiaohe fracture three-level tectonic model earthquakes |
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