| 西藏地区复杂地形下的降水空间分布估算模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 舒守娟, 喻自凤, 王元, 白玛. 西藏地区复杂地形下的降水空间分布估算模型[J]. 地球物理学报, 2005, 48(3): 535-542, |
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| 作者姓名： | 舒守娟 喻自凤 王元 白玛 |
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| 作者单位： | 1 南京大学大气科学系中尺度灾害性天气教育部重点实验室,南京210093 2 西藏大学地理系,拉萨850000 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目 (4 0 3 3 3 0 3 1)，国家重点基础研究发展规划项目 (973 :2 0 0 4CB4183 0 1)，教育部西部访问学者计划和博士点基金(2 0 0 3 0 2 840 19)资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文提供了一个描述西藏地区年、季降水量空间分布的估算模型.利用卫星遥测数字化地形高程资料和西藏地区仅有的27个常规气象站的多年平均降水整编资料，根据地形坡向站点分为三类.再采用多元逐步回归方法，建立西藏地区的年、季降水量和经度、纬度、海拔高度、坡度、坡向、遮蔽度等6个地理、地形因子之间的关系模型，估算西藏地区降水量的空间分布.结果表明，此方法建立的关于西藏地区降水量与诸因子之间方程的相关性显著，平均绝对误差、相对误差分别为0.93mm和1.16%，对估算模型进行F检验，均通过置信度为0.95的相关检验，回归效果较显著.分析表明估算降水能够定量、定性地再现西藏地区的实际降水分布.
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| 关 键 词： | 西藏地区 降水分布 地形因子 地理因子 估算模型 |
| 文章编号： | 0001-5733(2005)03-0535-08 |
| 收稿时间： | 2004-08-16 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005-01-09 |
A statistic model for the spatial distribution of precipitation estimation over the Tibetan complex terrain |
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| SHU Shou-Juan, YU Zi-Feng, WANG Yuan, BAI Ma. A statistic model for the spatial distribution of precipitation estimation over the Tibetan complex terrain[J]. Chinese Journal of Geophysics (in Chinese), 2005, 48(3): 535-542, |
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| Authors: | SHU Shou-Juan YU Zi-Feng WANG Yuan BAI Ma |
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| Affiliation: | 1 Key Laboratory of Mesoscale Severe Weather of Ministry of Education, Department of Atmospheric Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China 2 Department of Geographic Science, Tibet University,Lhasa 850000, China |
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| Abstract: | We propose a statistic model for spatial distribution of precipitation estimation in Tibet by using both digit elevation data retrieved from satellite and precipitation data reorganized from all the twenty-seven synoptic stations in Tibet. The stations are divided into three kinds according to their terrain sloping directions. The data of precipitation of each kind is analyzed using the multinomial regression of the ordinary least-square method to establish the regression equation between precipitation and its impact factors such as longitude, latitude, height, slope, sloping direction, and close limit. The results show that the correlation between precipitation and impact factors are very significant. The mean absolute error is 0 93 mm, and the mean relative error is 1 16%. The estimated precipitation correctly replicates real distribution of precipitation qualitatively and quantitatively. |
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| Keywords: | Tibet Precipitation distribution Orographic factor Geographic factor Estimation model |
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