| 灌区干旱风险评估模型研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 王晓红,乔云峰,沈荣开,尹正杰,胡铁松.灌区干旱风险评估模型研究[J].水科学进展,2004,15(1):77-81. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王晓红 乔云峰 沈荣开 尹正杰 胡铁松 |
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| 作者单位： | 武汉大学水利水电学院, 湖北, 武汉, 430072 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金重点资助项目(50239090)~~ |
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| 摘 要： | 根据风险理论,建立了包括农业干旱发生概率、抗旱能力、受灾体种植面积比等多因子的灌区农业干旱风险评估模型。并将相对产量作为灌区农业干旱评估指标,能够反映土壤 作物 大气系统中水分运动对农业生产的影响,利用该指标结合干旱风险评估模型对灌区农业干旱进行风险评估,分析出灌区各种作物对干旱风险度影响最大的生育阶段和风险度最高的农作物,以便灌区制定合理的抗旱方案以减小灌区干旱损失。
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| 关 键 词： | 灌区 农业干旱 干旱指标 风险评估模型 |
| 文章编号： | 1001-6791(2004)01-0077-05 |
| 收稿时间： | 2002-10-28 |
| 修稿时间： | 2002年10月28 |
Drought risk assessment model for irrigation region |
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| WANG Xiao-hong,QIAO Yun-feng,SHEN Rong-kai,YIN Zheng-jie,HU Tie-song.Drought risk assessment model for irrigation region[J].Advances in Water Science,2004,15(1):77-81. |
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| Authors: | WANG Xiao-hong QIAO Yun-feng SHEN Rong-kai YIN Zheng-jie HU Tie-song |
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| Affiliation: | School of Water Resources and Hydropower, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China |
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| Abstract: | In this paper,based on the risk analysis theory,a risk assessment model for agricultural drought is developed,which includes the occurrence probability of drought,capacity of drought prevention,percentage of planting area,etc.The relative yield is introduced as the agricultural drought index reflecting the impaction of water transport in the SPAC system on the yield.By means of the index and the model,the agricultural drought risk of irrigation area is evaluated,which analyses the living phase of crops with the highest influence on risk degree of crops and the crop of the most risk degree.The results would greatly benefit to establish reasonable scheme of drought prevention and alleviate the disaster loss. |
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| Keywords: | irrigation region agricultural drought drought index risk assessment model |
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