| 我国地震预报研究近十年的发展与展望 |
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| 引用本文： | 张国民,李丽,焦明若.我国地震预报研究近十年的发展与展望[J].地球物理学报,1997,40(Z1):396-410. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张国民 李丽 焦明若 |
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| 作者单位： | 国家地震局分析预报中心, 北京 100036 |
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| 摘 要： | 简要回顾了我国地震预报的发展过程，并着重对最近10年（尤其是90年代以来）的地震预报研究进展作了较系统的阐述．主要分为：（1）大地震震源区地壳细结构和介质物性的探测研究；（2）地震和前兆数字化观测技术的研制；（3）地震短临预报方法及其判据、指标的研究；（4）地震序列类型和震后趋势早期应用判断方法及其指标的研究；（5）华北北部地震短临预报方法、前兆综合解释模型与短临预报综合判别系统的研究；（6）地震预报新技术、新方法的探索；（7）地震中长期预报研究及我国近期（10年左右尺度）地震重点监视防御区的确定；（8）板内地震孕育发生的物理模型及前兆场物理解释的探索研究．最后还对我国地震预报的未来发展进行了展望．
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| 关 键 词： | 地震预报 地震前兆 前兆观测 地震序列 地震孕育 孕震模型 |
| 收稿时间： | 1997-04-01 |
DEVELOPMENT IN EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION RESEARCH DURING THE LAST DECADE IN CHINA AND ITS PROSPECTS |
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| ZHANG GUO-MIN,LI LI,JIAO MING-RUO.DEVELOPMENT IN EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION RESEARCH DURING THE LAST DECADE IN CHINA AND ITS PROSPECTS[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,1997,40(Z1):396-410. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG GUO-MIN LI LI JIAO MING-RUO |
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| Affiliation: | Center for Analysis and Prediction, SSB, Beijing 100036, China |
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| Abstract: | The developing process of earthquake prediction research in China and the progress made in the recent 10 years （especially in 1990's） are reviewed in this paper systematically and allsidely, which includes the following 8 aspects: 1. Detection of the detailed crustal structures and the physical features of crustal media in the source regions of large shocks; 2. Development of the digital techniques for observation of earthquakes and precursors; 3. ReSearch on the methods, criterion and indexes for short-term and imminent earthquake prediction; 4. Research on the methods, criterion and indexes for early-stage determination of seismic sequences and aftershock seismic seismic tendency; 5. Research on the methods of short-term and imminent earthquake predication, the synthetic explanation models for precursors and the comprehensive system for synthetic prediction in short and imminent stage; 6. Development of the new methods and new techniques in earthquake prediction; 7. Research on middle to long-term earthquake prediction and the determination of key monitoring defensive regions for recent （about 10 years） earthquakes in China; 8. Research on physical models for preparation and development of intraplate earthquakes and physical explanation for seismic precursory filed. The prospects of earthquake prediction research in China are shown at the end of the paper. |
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| Keywords: | Earthquake prediction Seismic precursors Precursory observation Seismic sequence Seismic preparation Seismogenic model |
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