| 基于约束性分析的数据与作物模型同化方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 孙琳丽,马玉平,俄有浩,邹艳东,景元书,邢开瑜.基于约束性分析的数据与作物模型同化方法[J].应用气象学报,2013,24(3):287-296. |
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| 作者姓名： | 孙琳丽 马玉平 俄有浩 邹艳东 景元书 邢开瑜 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.中国气象科学研究院，北京 100081 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国气象科学研究院基本科研业务费专项（2009Y005）,公益性行业（气象）科研专项（GYHY200906022）,中国气象局气候变化专项（CCSF 09 12） |
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| 摘 要： | 同化观测数据可为作物生长模型的区域应用提供支持。该文定义了观测数据对模型参数的约束性，研究发现华北夏玉米观测数据对WOFOST模型的可约束参数主要包括初始总干物重、不同发育阶段的比叶面积、初始最大CO2同化速率、叶片衰老系数、初始土壤有效水、最大根深日增量以及初始根深的初始土壤水分含量等。建立了基于参数约束性分析的观测数据与作物生长模型同化方法和流程, 利用优化算法进行作物生长模型所有参数和变量初值的敏感性分析，遴选出各状态变量的敏感参数；根据拟合度与优化结果之间关系进行敏感参数的约束性分析，获得不同变量的可约束参数；组合优化可约束参数得到各参数最优值，由此实现了观测数据与作物生长模型的同化。约束性体现了观测数据对模型参数或变量初值的控制能力，可约束参数作为待优化参数使数据模型同化获得了最优结果。
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| 关 键 词： | 约束性分析 同化 作物生长模型 观测数据 |
| 收稿时间： | 2012-08-17 |
Assimilation of Observations with Crop Growth Model Based on the Constrained Analysis of Parameters |
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| Affiliation: | 1.Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 1000812.Tongliao Meteorological Bureau of Inner Mongolia, Tongliao 0280003.Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 2100444.Sichuan Provincial Climate Center, Chengdu 610072 |
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| Abstract: | Data assimilation may support regional applications of crop growth model, in which the selection of parameters and initial value of variables need lots of optimizing. Constraint reflects the controllability of observations on model parameters or variable initial value. Optimization of constrained parameters will most likely reach optimal results in data assimilation. An assimilation method of observations and crop growth model is established based on constrained analysis of model parameters. Sensitive parameters and initial value of the state variables in crop growth models are first selected using sensitivity analysis based on optimization algorithms. Constrained parameters of different variables are then obtained through constrained analysis, which is defined according to the relation of goodness of fit (QT) and optimization results of parameters. The optimal value of each parameter is got by means of combinatorial optimization of constrained parameters at last. Based on the constrained analysis, observations of summer maize leaf area index (LAI) in North China can constrain initial total crop dry weight (TDWI), initial specific leaf area (SLA1), initial maximum leaf CO2 assimilation rate (Amax1) and life span of leaves growing at 35 Celsius (SPAN) in WOFOST under optimal soil water condition. Dry weight of living storage organs (WSO) with the same results as the LAI is achieved. Total above ground production (TAGP) still include specific leaf area between jointing stage and tasseling stage (SLA2). Constrained parameters of LAI under water stress level include not only TDWI, SLA1, Amax1, and SPAN, but also initial amount of available water in total root zone (WAV), maximum daily increase in rooting depth (RRI), and maximum initial and soil moisture content of the initial root depth (SMLIM). Parameters constrained by LAI, WSO, TAGP and soil moisture content (SM) are not exactly the same with each other. The values of crop and soil parameters and initial conditions in WOFOST are obtained using observations over North China in 2009. Simulation shows that WOFOST can reflect the process of summer maize development, growth, and yield formation. The assimilation approaches are the foundation for application of crop growth model at regional scale. |
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| Keywords: | constrained analysis assimilation crop growth model observations |
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