| 热带气旋频数的短期气候预测水平评估 |
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| 引用本文： | 雷小途.热带气旋频数的短期气候预测水平评估[J].应用气象学报,2001,12(4):501-506. |
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| 作者姓名： | 雷小途 |
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| 作者单位： | 上海台风研究所, 上海 200030 |
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| 基金项目： | 本文受国家“九五”重点医关课题(96-908-05-06-04)的资助. |
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| 摘 要： | 热带气旋频数的实况是一确定的整数, 而预测仍具一定的不确定性, 其实质是一区间, 即待评估的问题是预测区间与一确定整数的接近程度。针对待评估对象的这种特征, 定义了d指数、绝对误差 (E) 和技巧水平 (S) 3个评估参数, 分别从趋势预测、定量预测、相对于气候概率预测的技巧等方面客观地标度待评估方法的预测性能, 并对“九五”攻关前10年 (1988~1997年) 的业务预测性能进行了再评估:对7月TCF预测的d指数和E分别为0.9和0.8个、相对于气候概率 (即无技巧) 预测的技巧水平为-0.06; 8月的d、E、S分别为0.7、0.75个和0.13; 9月的d、E、S分别为0.65、0.9个和0.01;台汛期的d、E、S分别为0.3、1.7个和0.06; 全年的d、E、S分别为0.3、2.2个和0.07。
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| 关 键 词： | 热带气旋 频数 短期气候预测 评估 |
| 收稿时间： | 2000-02-22 |
| 修稿时间： | 2000年2月22日 |
Accuracy Evaluation of Short-climatic Forecast on Tropical Cyclone Frequency |
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| Lei Xiaotu.Accuracy Evaluation of Short-climatic Forecast on Tropical Cyclone Frequency[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,2001,12(4):501-506. |
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| Authors: | Lei Xiaotu |
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| Affiliation: | Shanghai Typhoon Institute, Shanghai 200030 |
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| Abstract: | The tropical cyclone frequency (TCF) is actually a certain integer, but these exists uncertainty in the subjective and objective short-climatic forecasts, so the contiguous degree must be evaluated. In order to evaluate the accuracy of short-climatic forecasting on TCF, fistly three parameters, determine index (d), absolute error (E) and skill score (S), are defined comparatively with climatic probability forecast (CPF) which was regard as naught forecast. Then, the accuracy was evaluated of subjective forecast from 1988 to 1997. The results indicate: d, E and S of typhoon season are 0.3, 1.7 and 0.06; d, E and S of July are 0.9, 0.8 and 0.06; d、E and S of August are 0.7, 0.75 and 0.13; d, E and S of September are 0.65, 0.9 and 0.01, respectively. |
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| Keywords: | Tropical cyclone \ Frequency \ Short-clim atic forecast \ Accuracy evaluation |
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