| 江西省早稻雨洗花灾害时空变化及分区 |
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| 引用本文： | 田俊,霍治国,刘丹,杨军.江西省早稻雨洗花灾害时空变化及分区[J].应用气象学报,2019,30(5):608-618. |
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| 作者姓名： | 田俊 霍治国 刘丹 杨军 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.江西省气象科学研究所, 南昌 330096 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国气象科学研究院科技发展基金（2018KJ012）,"十二五"国家科技支撑计划（2012BAD20B02） |
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| 摘 要： | 雨洗花灾害是江西省早稻的主要农业气象灾害之一。基于1981-2017年江西省早稻种植区81个气象站逐日降水量资料和14个水稻观测站发育期和产量资料,利用旋转经验正交函数分解（REOF）等方法,探讨江西省早稻雨洗花灾害的时空变化和分区特征并得到典型场。结果表明:江西省早稻雨洗花灾害发生频率总体呈东北高、西南低,赣北南部高、两侧低的分布特征,高值区位于萍乡北部、宜春南部、新余、南昌、抚州北部至赣东北地区,发生频率在60%以上,低值区位于赣州和吉安西南部,发生频率低于40%。轻度雨洗花灾害持续影响江西省大部分地区,且自1992年以来呈现发生频率增加、影响范围扩大的趋势;重度灾害主要发生在赣东北,经历了两个活跃期和两个低发期。根据REOF分析结果,可将江西省早稻雨洗花灾害划分为赣北南部、赣中、赣东北、赣南和赣北北部5个区域。赣东北为重度雨洗花灾害高风险区,赣北南部为轻度雨洗花灾害高风险区,赣中、赣北北部为轻度雨洗花灾害次高风险区,赣南为雨洗花灾害低风险区。
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| 关 键 词： | 早稻雨洗花灾害 时空变化 旋转经验正交函数分解 分区 |
| 收稿时间： | 2019/3/11 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2019/7/1 0:00:00 |
Spatial-temporal Variation and Zoning of Rain-washing Damage to Early Rice Pollen in Jiangxi Province |
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| Tian Jun,Huo Zhiguo,Liu Dan and Yang Jun.Spatial-temporal Variation and Zoning of Rain-washing Damage to Early Rice Pollen in Jiangxi Province[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,2019,30(5):608-618. |
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| Authors: | Tian Jun Huo Zhiguo Liu Dan and Yang Jun |
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| Affiliation: | 1.Jiangxi Institute of Meteorological Science, Nanchang 3300962.Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 1000813.Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044 |
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| Abstract: | Rain-washing damage to pollen is one of the main agrometeorological disasters of early rice in Jiangxi. Meanwhile, the rice cropping areas in Jiangxi have very complex terrains, and the agroclimatic conditions are variable, and therefore the coincidence period of flowering period and wet season vary in different regions. Considering those above, based on observations of 81 meteorological stations and 14 rice stations in the early rice planting areas of Jiangxi from 1981 to 2017, the spatial-temporal variation and zoning of rain-washing damage to early rice pollen in Jiangxi are analyzed by empirical orthogonal function(EOF) rotated empirical orthogonal function(REOF).
Results show that the occurrence frequency of rain-washing damage to early rice pollen in Jiangxi is generally high in northeast and low in southwest, while in northern Jiangxi, it is high along the south part and low on both sides. The high value area is in northern Pingxiang, southern Yichun, Xinyu, Nanchang, northern Fuzhou and northeastern Jiangxi, with the occurrence frequency more than 60%. The low value area is in Ganzhou and southwestern Ji''an, with the occurrence frequency less than 40%. Mild disasters occur all over the Province, and its frequency and range are increasing since 1992. Severe disasters mainly occur in northeastern Jiangxi, and there are two active periods and two inactive periods. According to results of EOF and REOF analysis, the high value areas (the absolute value is not less than 0.5) of the first five rotated principal components cover almost the whole planting area of the early rice in Jiangxi, and high value areas of five components are in the south part of northern Jiangxi, central Jiangxi, northeastern Jiangxi, southern Jiangxi and the north part of northern Jiangxi in turn, which means that the rain-washing damage to early rice pollen in Jiangxi can be divided into five subareas as above. Among those subregions, northeastern Jiangxi is in the high-risk area of severe rain-washing damage to pollen, the south part of northern Jiangxi is in the high-risk area of mild rain washing-damage to pollen, central Jiangxi and the north part of northern Jiangxi are the sub-high risk area, and southern Jiangxi is the low risk area. |
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| Keywords: | rain-washing damage to early rice pollen spatial-temporal variation rotated empirical orthogonal function analysis zoning |
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