On the treatment of uncertainty in seismic vulnerability and portfolio risk assessment |
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| Authors: | Luis Sousa Vitor Silva Mário Marques Helen Crowley |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, University of Porto, Porto, Portugal;2. RISCO, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Aveiro, Aveiro, Portugal;3. European Centre for Training and Research in Earthquake Engineering, Pavia, Italy |
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| Abstract: | In a related study developed by the authors, building fragility is represented by intensity‐specific distributions of damage exceedance probability of various damage states. The contribution of the latter has been demonstrated in the context of loss estimation of building portfolios, where it is shown that the proposed concept of conditional fragility functions provides the link between seismic intensity and the uncertainty in damage exceedance probabilities. In the present study, this methodology is extended to the definition of building vulnerability, whereby vulnerability functions are characterized by hazard‐consistent distributions of damage ratio per level of primary seismic intensity parameter—Sa(T1). The latter is further included in a loss assessment framework, in which the impact of variability and spatial correlation of damage ratio in the probabilistic evaluation of seismic loss is accounted for, using test‐bed portfolios of 2, 5, and 8‐story precode reinforced concrete buildings located in the district of Lisbon, Portugal. This methodology is evaluated in comparison with current state‐of‐the‐art methods of vulnerability and loss calculation, highlighting the discrepancies that can arise in loss estimates when the variability and spatial distributions of damage ratio, influenced by ground motion properties other than the considered primary intensity measure, are not taken into account. |
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| Keywords: | damage ratio uncertainty and spatial correlation event‐based seismic loss estimation hazard‐consistent fragility and vulnerability |
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