| 基于承压-无压水公式的区间涌水量预测 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 董贵明,常大海,田娟,高付明.基于承压-无压水公式的区间涌水量预测[J].水文地质工程地质,2017,0(3):1-5. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 董贵明 常大海 田娟 高付明 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 1. 中国矿业大学资源与地球科学学院，江苏 徐州221116；2. 江苏师范大学地理测绘与城乡规划学院，江苏 徐州221116 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(41202179)；江苏省高校优势学科建设工程资助项目 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 针对矿井涌水量计算过程中存在不确定性的问题，从区间不确定性角度出发，基于非概率集合理论，推导出了采用经验公式计算影响半径和根据观测资料给出影响半径这两种情况下承压-无压水涌水量区间解析表达式，定量刻画了参数的区间不确定性下涌水量的区间响应，实现了从确定型计算公式到区间不确定性型计算公式的转变。通过对比蒙特卡洛法得到的实际区间上下限和推导出公式计算的上下限，分别给出了两个区间涌水量预测公式计算结果相对误差的绝对值控制在5%和10%以内时，相应变量的允许变化率，分析结果表明:公式一计算最大（最小）涌水量的相对误差为5%和10%时，变量的允许变化率分别为0.18（0.08）和0.28（0.12）；公式二计算最大（最小）涌水量的相对误差为5%和10%时，变量的允许变化率分别为0.08（0.05）和0.12（0.08）；在相同误差要求下，两个公式计算最大值时的允许变化率高于最小值时的允许变化率，这对计算矿井涌水量的上限有利。这为矿井涌水量计算提供了一条新的途径。
|
| 关 键 词： | 承压-无压水井公式 涌水量 区间不确定性 大井法 |
| 收稿时间： | 2016-01-15 |
| 修稿时间： | 2016-06-10 |
Interval confined-unconfined water inflow forecasting formula |
| |
| DONG Guiming,CHANG Dahai,TIAN Juan,GAO Fuming.Interval confined-unconfined water inflow forecasting formula[J].Hydrogeology and Engineering Geology,2017,0(3):1-5. |
| |
| Authors: | DONG Guiming CHANG Dahai TIAN Juan GAO Fuming |
| |
| Affiliation: | 1.The School of Resource and Earth Science, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou, Jiangsu221116, China; 2.School of Geography, Geomatics and Planning, Jiangsu Normal University, Xuzhou, Jiangsu221116, China |
| |
| Abstract: | For the issues that the uncertainty exists in calculating the mine inflow, this study starts from the perspective of interval uncertainty. Based on the non-probabilistic set method, the interval analytic expression of confined-unconfined water inflow is deduced for different conditions by using empirical formula to calculate the influence radius and according to the observed data to give the influence radius. The interval response of water inflow under the interval uncertainty of parameters is quantitatively depicted, and the shift of calculating formula from the deterministic type to the type of interval uncertainty is realized. By comparing the upper and lower limits of the real interval values which are obtained by MC with the upper and lower limits of the interval value which are calculated with the deduced formula, the allowed change rate of the corresponding variables is given respectively when the absolute value of relative error of the results is controlled within 5% and 10% which are calculated with the two interval water inflow formula. The results show that the allowed change rate of the variable is 0.18 (0.08) and 0.28 (0.12), respectively, when the relative error of the maximum (minimum) water inflow which are calculated with the first formula is 5% and 10%, and the allowed change rate of the variables is 0.08 (0.05) and 0.12 (0.08), respectively, within the same condition which are calculated by the second formula. Under the identical error requirements, when the allowed change rates of the maximum values calculated with the two formula are higher than that of the minimum values, it is beneficial to calculate the upper limit of the mine inflow. This paper provided a new way for the uncertainty research on the mine inflow calculation. |
| |
| Keywords: | |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《水文地质工程地质》浏览原始摘要信息 |
|
点击此处可从《水文地质工程地质》下载全文 |
|
