| 甘肃定西地区地质灾害危险性评价 |
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| 引用本文： | 沈迪,郭进京,陈俊合.甘肃定西地区地质灾害危险性评价[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2021,32(4):134-142. |
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| 作者姓名： | 沈迪 郭进京 陈俊合 |
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| 作者单位： | 天津城建大学地质与测绘学院，天津 300384 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目（41772215） |
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| 摘 要： | 识别地质灾害聚集的热点区及驱动力对于区域灾害预警具有重要意义。以甘肃定西地区为研究区，选取坡度、坡向、土地利用等7个评价因子，利用确定系数与逻辑回归耦合模型、空间自相关方法分析地质灾害的空间集聚特征及驱动因素。结果表明:定西地区地质灾害危险性呈现中部高，南北两侧低的特征，其主要受降水、坡向、工程岩组等因子的影响；地质灾害与降水、坡向和工程岩组的空间关系为高高聚集；地质灾害危险性存在较强的空间自相关性，在3 km的空间尺度上呈显著正相关，且随距离阈值增加而降低；距离阈值为5 km时，正相关高高聚集与低低聚集以团块的形式存在，而高低聚集与低高聚集多以零星状分布。研究可为区域地质灾害监测与防控提供参考。
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| 关 键 词： | 地质灾害 确定系数法 逻辑回归模型 空间自相关分析 |
| 收稿时间： | 2020-05-26 |
Risk assessment of geological hazards in Dingxi region of Gansu Province |
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| Affiliation: | School of Geology and Geomatics, Tianjin Chengjian University, Tianjin 300384, China |
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| Abstract: | It is of great significance to identify the hot spots and driving forces of geological hazard gathering for regional disaster early warning. Dingxi region of Gansu Province is taken as a the study area. Seven factors such as slope, aspect, land use, engineering rock group and so on are selected to analyze the spatial agglomeration characteristics and driving factors of geological hazards by using coupling model of determining coefficient and logical regression and spatial autocorrelation. The results show that the sensitivity of geological hazards in Dingxi region is high in the middle region and low in the north and south region. The spatial relationship between geological hazards and precipitation, aspect and engineering rock group is high accumulation. Geological hazard sensitivity has strong spatial autocorrelation, which is significantly positive correlation in 3 km scale, and decreases with the increase of distance threshold. When the distance threshold is 5 km, the high and low aggregation areas are clustered and distributed in the form of clumps, while the high and low aggregation areas and the low and high aggregation areas are mostly scattered. The research can provide reference for regional geological hazard monitoring and control. |
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