| 溃坝风险后果研究现状与发展趋势 |
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| 引用本文： | 葛巍,焦余铁,李宗坤,张兆省,郭新燕.溃坝风险后果研究现状与发展趋势[J].水科学进展,2020,31(1):143-151. |
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| 作者姓名： | 葛巍 焦余铁 李宗坤 张兆省 郭新燕 |
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| 作者单位： | 郑州大学水利科学与工程学院,河南郑州450001;Faculty of Technology,Policy and Management,Delft University of Technology,Delft 2628 BX,the Netherlands;郑州大学水利科学与工程学院,河南郑州450001;郑州大学水利科学与工程学院,河南郑州450001;郑州大学软件学院,河南郑州450002;河南省前坪水库建设管理局,河南郑州450003 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目（51679222；51709239） |
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| 摘 要： | 溃坝风险后果分析是水库大坝风险评估的重要内容。影响溃坝风险后果的因素多,作用机理复杂,导致不同研究方法的分析结果与实际后果之间均存在较大差异。从风险后果的内涵出发,建议风险后果可分为生命损失、经济损失和环境影响3个基础类别;分析国外研究成果与应用情况,明确从基于历史资料构建经验模型到基于致灾机理构建物理模型的发展趋势;分析中国溃坝风险后果评估现状,明确结合致灾机理的经验模型分析、半定量评价和区域损失叠加计算三类研究方法在准确性和实用性方面的优点与不足;提出应从加强致灾机理分析、注重准确性与实用性的结合、重视非工程措施的重要作用和在应用中不断改进等4个方面采取措施,提高风险后果研究水平和实际应用效果。
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| 关 键 词： | 溃坝 风险评估 风险后果 损失 影响 |
| 收稿时间： | 2019-03-10 |
Status and development trend of research on risk consequences caused by dam breach |
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| GE Wei,JIAO Yutie,LI Zongkun,ZHANG Zhaosheng,GUO Xinyan.Status and development trend of research on risk consequences caused by dam breach[J].Advances in Water Science,2020,31(1):143-151. |
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| Authors: | GE Wei JIAO Yutie LI Zongkun ZHANG Zhaosheng GUO Xinyan |
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| Affiliation: | 1.School of Water Conservancy Engineering, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, China2.Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, Delft University of Technology, Delft 2628 BX, the Netherlands3.School of Software, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450002, China4.Henan Qianping Reservoir Construction Administration, Zhengzhou 450003, China |
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| Abstract: | Risk consequences analysis of dam breach is fundamental to risk assessment of reservoir dams. Multiple influencing factors and complex mechanisms lead to great differences between the analysis results of different research methods and the actual consequences. It is suggested that risk consequences can be divided into three basic categories:loss of life,economic loss and environmental impact,based on their definitions. According to the analysis of research achievements and applications abroad,the development trend that physical model based on disaster-causing mechanism takes place of empirical model based on historical data is clarified. Based on the analysis of research status of dam breach risk consequences assessment in China,both advantages and disadvantages of three main research methods,i.e. analysis based on empirical model and disaster-causing mechanism,semi-quantitative evaluation and superposition calculation of regional losses,are clarified in terms of accuracy and practicability. It is proposed that the risk consequences research and practical application can be improved in four aspects,i.e.,strengthening the analysis of disaster-causing mechanism,paying attention to the combination of accuracy and practicability,emphasizing the important roles of non-engineering measures and improving the research constantly during application. |
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| Keywords: | dam breach risk assessment risk consequence loss impact |
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