首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
     

2018年2月琼州海峡持续性海雾过程的数值模拟分析
引用本文:王慧,林建,马占山,刘达,吴晓京. 2018年2月琼州海峡持续性海雾过程的数值模拟分析[J]. 大气科学, 2022, 46(5): 1267-1280. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2203.21265
作者姓名:王慧  林建  马占山  刘达  吴晓京
作者单位:1.国家气象中心, 北京 100081
基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目2021YFC3090205、2019YFC1510104
摘    要:2018年2月春节期间琼州海峡发生持续性大雾天气,造成大量船舶停航。本文结合葵花8号卫星反演海雾产品、琼州海峡沿岸站点能见度观测数据及美国国家环境预报中心NCEP(National Centers for Environmental Prediction) 提供的FNL(Final Analysis)客观分析资料,对2018年2月18~20日的大雾过程进行了天气学成因分析,并进一步利用CMA-MESO(Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction System)高分辨率数值模式从边界层方案、模式垂直分层以及海雾能见度算法三个方面进行敏感性试验,以找出模拟效果更好的模式设置方案。研究结果表明:大雾期间华南近海海温较常年平均偏低,受地面冷高压南下补充的弱冷空气影响,偏东暖湿气流流经冷海面并快速凝结。而数值模拟对比试验显示,采用YSU(Yonsei University)边界层方案、边界层垂直层次加密及美国国家海洋大气局预报系统实验室(FSL/NOAA)的海雾诊断方案(简称FSL)对改进能见度预报效果显著:YSU边界层方案比MRF(Medium Range Forecast Model)边界层方案对该次大雾过程的分布范围和最低能见度出现的时间模拟效果更优;模式低层分层加密可更好体现出低能见度的演变过程;通过能见度算法与实况对比,基于模式预报性能较好的湿度和温度预报而来的FSL算法,其能见度预报与站点实况最为接近。

关 键 词:琼州海峡   大雾   能见度   数值模拟   边界层方案
收稿时间:2021-12-31

Numerical Simulation and Analysis of the Persistent Sea Fog in the Qiongzhou Strait in February 2018
Affiliation:1.National Meteorological Center, Beijing 1000812.CMA Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre, Beijing 1000813.National Satellite Meteorological Centre, Beijing 100081
Abstract:During the Spring Festival in February 2018, persistent heavy fog was present in the Qiongzhou Strait, causing a large number of ships to stop sailing. Synoptic causes for the heavy fog event from February 18 to 20 in 2018 were analyzed by using Himawari-8-derived sea fog products, observed visibility data gathered from coastal stations over Qiongzhou Strait, and Final Operational Global Analysis (FNL) from the National Centers for Environment Prediction. Based on the high-resolution numerical model Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction System (CMA-MESO), sensitive experiments were conducted based on a comparison of multiple boundary layer schemes, vertical resolutions of the model, and algorithms related to the visibility of sea fog. It was found that the offshore sea temperature in South China during the heavy fog event was lower than average. Affected by the supplemented weak cold air via the cold high pressure southward, the warm and humid air in the east flowed through the cold sea surface and condensed quickly. The results of contrast experiments demonstrated that the prediction accuracy of visibility could be significantly improved by employing the Yonsei University (YSU) boundary layer scheme and the sea fog diagnosis scheme of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Forecast Systems Laboratory (FSL) along with increasing the vertical levels of the boundary layer. Compared to the MRF (Medium Range Forecast Model) boundary layer scheme, the simulations of the spatial distribution of heavy fog and occurring time of minimum visibility are much better using the YSU boundary layer scheme. Moreover, expanding the levels of the lower layer of the numerical model was found to improve the simulation results regarding the evolution of low visibility. Through the visibility algorithms and the real comparison, based on the well-predicted moisture and temperature, the predictions of visibility using the FSL method are much more accurate.
Keywords:
点击此处可从《大气科学》浏览原始摘要信息
点击此处可从《大气科学》下载全文
设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号