| 哈尔滨城市土地生态安全时序评价及预测分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 王晶,原伟鹏,刘新平.哈尔滨城市土地生态安全时序评价及预测分析[J].干旱区地理,2018,41(4):885-892. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王晶 原伟鹏 刘新平 |
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| 作者单位： | 新疆农业大学管理学院, 新疆 乌鲁木齐 830052 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目（71663051） |
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| 摘 要： | 基于人文社会视角，以“自然-社会-经济”协同模型为依据构建土地生态安全评价体系，运用客观赋权法和综合指数法对哈尔滨市土地生态安全进行时序性评价。研究表明：（1）哈尔滨市土地生态安全总体呈现出“敏感-良好-安全”动态变化过程，预测未来几年保持良好的发展态势。（2）影响研究区土地生态安全的主要驱动因子为土地利用结构、城镇化率、人口密度和农用化肥施用量。（3）坚持生态优先，加强土地利用适宜性和生态性的合理匹配，减小土地生态承载压力，构建稳态经济运行模式是哈尔滨市绿色发展的着力点。
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| 关 键 词： | 土地生态安全 时序演变 综合指数法 客观赋权法 哈尔滨 |
| 收稿时间： | 2018-01-27 |
Time series evaluation and prediction analysis of urban land ecological security in Harbin City |
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| WANG Jing,YUAN Wei-peng,LIU Xin-ping.Time series evaluation and prediction analysis of urban land ecological security in Harbin City[J].Arid Land Geography,2018,41(4):885-892. |
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| Authors: | WANG Jing YUAN Wei-peng LIU Xin-ping |
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| Affiliation: | School of Management, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052, Xinjiang, China |
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| Abstract: | In recent years,the research of urban land ecological security problems has become an important topic in land ecological research.The evaluation and prediction of regional land ecological security of a city is a prerequisite to solve the land ecological security issues of the city.From the perspective of human society,this paper embarked on time series analysis and the land ecological security evaluation system was constructed based on the "nature-society-economy synergetic model",using the entropy weight method and comprehensive index method.The weight of each evaluation index was obtained and the comprehensive value of land ecological security was calculated to evaluate and forecast the status of urban land ecological security and the driving factors of land ecological security in Harbin City,Heilongjiang Province,China.The countermeasures to strengthen the land ecological security of the city were proposed.The research results show as follows:(1) The land ecological security value of Harbin City was increased from 0.759 9 in 2004 to 0.890 4 in 2016,which indicated the dynamic change process following a pattern of "Sensitive level-Good level-Safe". (2) The land ecological security of Harbin City will be in the Good level in the next few years and maintain a good development trend. (3) The main influence factors of land ecological security in Harbin City include the land use structure,urbanization rate,population density and the amount of fertilizer applied to agriculture. |
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| Keywords: | land ecological security time series evolution prediction comprehensive index method Harbin City |
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