| 层次分析法在四川盆地页岩气勘探区评价中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 管全中,董大忠,王玉满,黄金亮,王淑芳.层次分析法在四川盆地页岩气勘探区评价中的应用[J].地质科技通报,2015,34(5):91-97. |
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| 作者姓名： | 管全中 董大忠 王玉满 黄金亮 王淑芳 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国石油勘探开发研究院, 北京 100083 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家页岩气重大专项“页岩气重点地区资源评价”(2011ZX05018-001)国家重点基础研究发展计划“973”项目(2013CB228001) |
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| 摘 要： | 为了对四川盆地页岩气勘探区进行优选分析,研究了影响页岩气有利区带勘探开发的关键因素,采用层次分析法的原理,通过建立层次结构模型、构造判断矩阵、层次单排序及一致性检验、层次总排序及一致性检验4个基本步骤,建立了页岩气勘探区评价优选层次结构模型:目标层,准则层,子准则层和方案层,并且计算了各个评价指标的权重大小。研究结果表明,影响页岩气勘探区勘探开发的因素主要分为地质条件、开发条件和支持条件三大类(准则层),其中地质条件是页岩气有利区带优选的首要因素,权重高达0.637 0。子准则层主要由富有机质页岩厚度、w(TOC)、Ro、有利面积、埋深、天然裂缝发育程度、市场需求等12个评价指标组成,其中含气量、天然裂缝发育程度、压力系数以及市场需求是页岩气有利区带优选的关键指标。通过评价指标赋值和加权求和法计算了四川盆地页岩气勘探区的综合得分,其中焦石坝和长宁页岩气区块得分最高,是页岩气最有利地区。最后建议在页岩气勘探区运用“分层次,分重点,分先后”的评价方法来优选“甜点”区,以规避不必要的损失。
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| 关 键 词： | 层次分析法 页岩气 勘探区优选 四川盆地 加权求和法 综合评价 |
| 收稿时间： | 2014-10-18 |
AHP Application to Shale Gas Exploration Areas Assessment in Sichuan Basin |
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| Affiliation: | Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration and Development, PetroChina, Beijing 100083, China |
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| Abstract: | In order to analyze key factors of profitable shale gas exploration and development for shale gas exploration areas in Sichuan Basin,the theory of analytical hierarchy process has been used to establish an optimization hierarchical structure model of shale gas exploration area assessment:goal layer,criterion layer,sub-criterion layer and project layer.The model is established by four steps:building up a hierarchical structure model,constructing judgment matrix,making single hierarchical arrangement and its consistency test,and forming total hierarchical arrangement and its consistency test.The weight factors are computed for the assessment.The main factors for the shale gas exploration and development are:geological condition,development condition and support condition.Geological condition is the first factor for shale gas exploration area assessment and its weight is up to 0.637 0.Sub-criterion layer mainly contains 12 evaluation indexes:thickness,TOC,Ro,gas content,profitable space,burial depth.etc.Gas content,natural facture growth,pressure coefficient and market demand are the key indexes for shale gas profitable play assessment.Jiaoshiba and Changning shale gas areas are of high marks and are the most favourable areas for the shale gas development according to the evaluation index given for weighted summation method.It is suggested that the assessment method of "different levels,focus and orders" should be used in the shale gas exploration in order to avoid unnecessary loss. |
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