| 地气耦合非定常距平模式的准业务预报试验 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈桂英,李小泉 林本达.地气耦合非定常距平模式的准业务预报试验[J].应用气象学报,1990,1(1):24-33. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈桂英 李小泉 林本达 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.国家气象局国家气象中心
(陈桂英，李小泉)，北京大学地球物理系(林本达) |
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| 摘 要： | 本文用地气耦合非定常距平模式对1988年1—12月北半球100 hPa、500 hPa、海平面气压和地面温度的月距平场进行了为期一年的逐月30天预报准业务试验。结果表明，模式对月距平场距平符号的趋势预报以100 hPa效果最好，海平面气压较差；模式对500 hPa、地面温度的月距平场预报优于持续性预报，表明该模式对距平场形势有一定的预报能力。试验结果还表明，模式预报在中低纬优于中高纬；但对不同层次、不同月份的预报效果不够稳定，而且对低值系统预报能力较差。模式的一个突出问题是预报场空间过份平滑，尚须作进一步试验、改进。
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A Quasi–operational Experiment from a Nonsteady Atmosphere–Earth Surface Coupled Anomaly Model |
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| Affiliation: | 1) (National Meteorological Center, SMA); 2) (Department of Geophysics, Peking University) |
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| Abstract: | A quasi–operational experiment for 30–day forecast has been made for morthly anomalies of 100 hPa, 500 hPa, SLP and SLT during January through December of 1988 from a nonsteady atmosphere—earth surface coupled anomaly model. The results show that the forecast of tendency of 100 hPa monthly anomaly is best and that of SLP is not too good, the model forecasts for both 500 hPa and surface temperature monthly anomalies are better than persistence forecasts. It means that this model can be forecast anomaly field in large scale. The results also show that it is better in the low and mid–latitude regions than in the mid–high latitudes. But the forecast effects are not quite the same for the different levels and months and the forecasts for low pressure systems are very satisfactory. The model has a defect in the spatial resolution, which is too smooth. So, it needs more experiments and improvements. |
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