| 1998年秋到1999年春华南特大干旱气候成因 |
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| 引用本文： | 陆丹.1998年秋到1999年春华南特大干旱气候成因[J].气象,2001,27(1):48-52. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陆丹 |
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| 作者单位： | 广西气象台, |
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| 基金项目： | 国家“九五”重中之重项目“我国短期气候预测系统的研究”资助!(专题号 :96 - 90 8- 0 5 - 0 7- 2 ) |
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| 摘 要： | 利用奇异值分解 (SVD) ,配合统计相关技术的应用 ,研究了广西秋季到第 2年 3月降水与 5 0 0 h Pa高度场和热带、北太平洋海温场的时间和空间结构及其相互关系。结果表明 ,第一耦合场明显反映了 ENSO信息 ,具有很高的相关 ;而海气配对的第二耦合场反映了作为关键区的日本海域以东的海温与 1 0 0°E以东 5 0 0 h Pa高度有较好的负相关。分析 1 998年以来海气场的变化 ,高度场上北太平洋中高纬 5 0 0 h Pa高度明显偏低 ,亚洲大陆和北太平洋中低纬高度偏高 ,因此其间冷空气明显偏弱 ,路径偏东 ;而海温场上 ENSO的变化 ,L ANina的发展过程与第一耦合场的海温变化模态一致 ;后期海、气关键区变化与第二耦合场相符。因此 ENSO的变化 ,日本海域以东升温造成了环流形势的异常 ,这是华南特大干旱的原因。利用时间系数互为因子法对广西 1 998年 8月到 1 999年 3月逐月降水作 SVD定量预报 ,预报降水持续偏少 ,1 999年春季干旱将非常严重。
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| 关 键 词： | 奇异值分解 ENSO 海温 500HPA高度 时间系数互为因子法 干旱气候 降水 成因 |
The Origin Study of South China Extraordinary Drought from Autumn 1998 to Spring 1999 |
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| Lu Dan.The Origin Study of South China Extraordinary Drought from Autumn 1998 to Spring 1999[J].Meteorological Monthly,2001,27(1):48-52. |
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| Authors: | Lu Dan |
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| Abstract: | With application of Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) and statistics method,the study was conducted on the time and space structures and the co-relationship between the Guangxi precipitation from autumn to next Mar.and the 500hPa height field and tropical,north Pacific sea surface temperature field.The results show that the first coupling field clearly reflects the ENSO signal with high correlation,and the second ocean-atmosphere coupling field reflects the good negative correlation between the sea temperature in the east of Japan Sea to be the key area and 500hPa height over the east of 100°E.The sea temperature-height field variation from 1998 was analysed,the 500hPa height field in the mid-high latitude of north Pacific is clearly below normal,and above normal in Asian continent and in the mid low latitude of north Pacific,which attributes to the significant weakening of the eastward cold air.The variation of ENSO in the sea temperature field and the La Nina developing process conform to the sea temperature variation modality of the first coupling field.The later period ocean-atmosphere variation conforms to the second coupling field of the sea temperature and atmosphere.It is concluded that the variation of ENSO and temperature ascent in the east of Japan sea favor the formation of abnormal circulation pattern which is the origin of the south China extraordinary drought at the end of this century.The quantitative monthly precipitation forecast in Guangxi from Aug.1998 to Mar.1999 with SVD method was presented. |
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| Keywords: | singular value decomposition ENSO sea temperature 500hPa heig8 |
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