| NCEP CFSv2对中国2015年夏季月尺度降水和环流预报分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 黄小梅,蒋兴文,肖丁木.NCEP CFSv2对中国2015年夏季月尺度降水和环流预报分析[J].高原山地气象研究,2016,36(4):48-58. |
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| 作者姓名： | 黄小梅 蒋兴文 肖丁木 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国气象局成都高原气象研究所/高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室, 成都 610072; |
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| 基金项目： | 中国气象局预报预测核心业务发展专项(CMAHX20160504)；中国气象局成都高原气象研究所基本科研业务费项目(BROP201514)；国家自然科学基金项目(91337107) |
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| 摘 要： | 利用美国环境预报中心的第二代气候预报系统(NCEP CFSv2)提供的1982~2010年历史回报资料和2015年6~8月预报产品、NCEP CFSR再分析资料及中国地面观测降水资料,评估了NCEP CFSv2对2015年(厄尔尼诺发展年)中国夏季月降水和环流形势的预报能力,并分析了影响模式预报技巧高低的可能因子。结果表明:1)模式对降水的预报技巧较低且表现出明显的月变化(7月最高,8月次之,6月最低),但总体水平都不高。预报技巧明显依赖于提前时间的长短。2)CFSv2对影响我国夏季降水的500h Pa关键区环流异常空间模态表现出较高的预报技巧。对全东亚区域,模式基本都可提前5~9天(7月9天,6月6天,8月5天)较为准确的预报出未来一个月高度异常空间模态。3)通过对比分析发现,CFSv2环流预报中选取12个集合成员(滑动3天)可以得到较稳定的预报结果。4)在2015年夏季月尺度环流异常模态预报中,东亚全区的环流预报水平很大程度上取决于中高纬地区的预报。CFSv2对中高纬环流月预报技巧(6~8月都能从提前4天开始就基本稳定维持在较高水平)比热带地区更高更稳定。
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| 关 键 词： | CFSv2 月降水 环流异常 预报技巧 |
| 收稿时间： | 2016-09-23 |
Prediction Analysis of Summer Monthly Precipitation and Circulation of 2015 in China by the NCEP CFSv2 |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Chengdu Institute of Plateau Meteorology, CMA/Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu 610072, China;2. Sichuan Provincial Meteorological Observatory, Chengdu 610072, China |
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| Abstract: | Using the retrospective forecasts covering 30-year period (1982-2010) provided the precipitation field and geopotential height field data and the forecast products during June to August of 2015 from the second-generation system of Climate Prediction (NCEP CFSv2),NCEP CFSR reanalysis data information,and the observed precipitation data in China,the predictive skills and errors between forecast and observation of China regional precipitation and circulation in summer of 2015 (El Nino developing year) have been evaluated. And the possible factors that affect the model forecast skill level have been analyzed. The results show that: 1) The model predictive skills show obvious monthly variation (in July is the highest,secondly is in August,the lowest is in June),and depend on the length of time in advance,but the overall levels are not very high. 2) CFSv2 can predict the crucial areas of circulation anomalies at 500 h Pa which affect regional precipitation of China in summer very well. The model can advance 5 ~ 9 days accurately predict the spatial mode of next month geopotential height anomaly for the entire east Asia region (in July is 9 days,in June are 6 days,in August is 5 days). 3) Through analysis and comparison,it is found that a collection of 12 members (3 day moving) can get a stable circulation forecasting results in CFSv2. 4) The CFSv2 monthly circulation predictive skills in the entire East Asia region largely depend on the prediction level in the mid-high latitude area in the summer of 2015. The prediction skills in the mid-high latitude area (from 4 days in advance can reach a high level and maintain stable for June to August) are higher and more stable than in the tropics. |
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